(Mainichi Japan) February 7, 2012
Relocation of Futenma base must not be neglected in review of US force realignment
社説：普天間置き去りは困る

The issue of relocating U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa Prefecture must not be left behind in a review of the planned realignment of U.S. forces in Japan.
(今回の米軍再編成により普天間の移設問題がうやむやにされてはならない。trans. by srachai )

Tokyo and Washington have agreed in principle to transfer some of the U.S. Marines in Okinawa to Guam in advance of the Futenma relocation, even though the two countries had decided to carry out both relocations as a package.
　日米両政府は、在沖縄米海兵隊のグアム移転と米軍普天間飛行場（沖縄県宜野湾市）の移設を「パッケージ」としてきた米軍再編の日米合意を見直し、海兵隊移転を切り離して先行させることで大筋合意した。

Specifically, the number of Okinawa-based Marines to be moved to Guam would be reduced to about 4,700 from the some 8,000 planned initially, while the remainder would be shifted to U.S. bases in Australia, the Philippines and other countries in a rotation.
　具体的には、海兵隊のグアムへの移転規模を当初の約８０００人から約４７００人に縮小し、残りの約３３００人はオーストラリアやフィリピンなどの米軍基地にローテーションで分散移転するという。

It is widely believed that the review has been put in motion on the U.S. government's initiative, with an eye to winning the support of a Congress calling for deep defense spending cuts, including to funds for the Okinawa-based Marines' relocation.
　グアム移転費を含めた国防費の大幅削減を求める米議会の理解を得るため、米政府が移転計画の見直しを主導したものとみられる。

The relocation of Futenma, which is aimed at eliminating the danger the base -- located right in the middle of the city of Ginowan -- poses to local residents, and the transfer of Marines to Guam under the U.S. forces realignment, do not in fact have anything to do with each other.
　もともと、普天間周辺の住民の危険除去を目的とする飛行場の返還・移設と、米軍再編の一環である海兵隊のグアム移転は、歴史的経緯もその性格も異なる。

However, these two separate issues were combined in a 2006 bilateral agreement on the realignment of U.S. forces.
それが、０６年の米軍再編に関する日米合意でセットにされたというのがいきさつだ。

If the transfer of Okinawa-based Marines goes ahead, it will undoubtedly reduce the U.S. base-hosting burden Japan's southernmost prefecture has shouldered for so many decades.
　沖縄に集中する海兵隊の海外移転が進めば、沖縄の基地負担の軽減に結びつくのは間違いない。

If the delinking of the two issues leads to an early transfer of Marines out of Okinawa, it should be regarded as a major step forward.
「切り離し」が早期の海兵隊移転につながるとすれば、それ自体は前進だろう。

However, concerns have been raised that the delinking of the two issues could lead to a slowdown in efforts to relocate Futenma out of Ginowan.
　しかし、この「切り離し」が普天間問題の「置き去り」を招くことになっては決してならない。

The Japanese and U.S. governments are required to respond to local governments' concerns, including that "the U.S. government may lose enthusiasm for settling the Futenma issue once it completes transferring Marines out of Okinawa" and that "the Futenma base may stay in Ginowan permanently."
　「米政府は海兵隊移転で普天間問題解決の意欲を失うのではないか」「普天間が固定化されるのでは」－－こうした沖縄の不安に、日米両政府はきちんと答える必要がある。

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said recently, "As we're aware that local residents are concerned that Futenma may remain there permanently, we'll put our utmost efforts into our negotiations on the issue with the United States."
　野田佳彦首相は「固定化への懸念は承知しているので、全力で（日米で）協議していく」と語った。

As he has pledged, the government should place priority on ensuring that Futenma will be relocated out of Ginowan.
言葉通り、普天間の固定化回避を最優先して取り組んでもらいたい。

The prime minister should have the courage to review the Japan-U.S. agreement to move the Futenma base to the Henoko district of Nago, also in Okinawa Prefecture, which Nago residents are opposing.
　毎日新聞は普天間移設について、沖縄が反対する「名護市辺野古への県内移設」の見直しを視野に入れて再検討するよう求めてきた。
そうでなければ最悪の事態である「普天間の固定化」が現実味を帯びてくるからだ。米側に再検討を提起する勇気を、野田首相に求める。

We would like to request that the two countries ensure that the following two points are carried out.
　また、海兵隊の海外移転見直しについて２点、注文したい。

First, Tokyo and Washington should speed up their consultations on early relocation of Marines to Guam, and work out the details of the plan to rotate the remaining troops to other areas in a way that will truly reduce the burden on Okinawa.
　まず、グアム移転早期実現の協議を急ぎ、残りの部隊の「ローテーションによる分散移転」が現実に沖縄の負担軽減となるよう詳細を詰めることだ。

It would be unacceptable if the Marines on rotation continued to place a burden on Okinawa.
ローテーションの内容しだいで、海外移転が事実上、グアム移転だけになり、負担軽減策が後退してしまうとすれば、論外である。

Moreover, with the decrease in the number of troops to be moved to Guam, the two countries need to review a bilateral agreement under which Japan is required to foot $6.09 billion of the $10.27 billion cost of the transfer.
　さらに、グアムへの移転規模の縮小に伴って、総額１０２．７億ドルのうち日本側が６０．９億ドルを負担するとした日米合意も見直さざるを得ない。

It is a matter of course that Tokyo demand its financial burden be reduced.
日本側の負担減額を要求するのは当然であり、

Japan should not agree to pay any unnecessary costs in an effort to ensure U.S. troops are rotated out of Okinawa.
「ローテーション」対策として安易な支出に踏み切るようなことは避けるべきだ。

毎日新聞　2012年2月7日　2時31分

(Mainichi Japan) February 6, 2012
Edano key person in Japan's nuclear future, but keeps true intentions hidden
風知草：枝野と鈴木貫太郎＝山田孝男

Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yukio Edano recently revealed in a magazine interview that the prime minister for whom he holds the highest regard is Kantaro Suzuki.
　枝野幸男経済産業相（４７）が最も高く評価している首相は鈴木貫太郎だそうだ。最近出た雑誌「ｇ２」（講談社）のインタビューで自ら語っている。

I found the mention of a taciturn, sage-like military chancellor by an eloquent lawyer-turned-minister striking.
口達者な弁護士閣僚と、寡黙で仙人めいた軍人老宰相。この取り合わせは面白い。

Suzuki was the prime minister of Japan when it surrendered to end World War II.
　鈴木は日本が第二次大戦に負けた時の首相である。

He was the one who brought the war to a close.
鈴木は戦争を終わらせた。

So what will Edano end?
枝野は何を終わらせるのか。

"Modernity," he promptly responded when I posed the question to him last weekend.
　先週末、枝野に直接確かめると、「近代でしょう」と即答した。

And what did he mean by "modernity"?
近代って？　

"A society of standardized mass production."
「規格大量生産の社会」。

Was that the same as bringing nuclear power to an end?
原発を終わらせることとは違う？　

"Nuclear power is not (our biggest challenge). Rather, energy conservation is."
「原発がメーン（の課題）ではない。むしろ省エネがポイントです」。枝野はそう言った。

The aforementioned interview spanned 20 pages in the most recent issue of the magazine G2, and addressed a wide range of topics -- including disillusionment with regime change, energy policy, the Constitution, and Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) bigwig Ichiro Ozawa.
　「ｇ２」のインタビューは２０ページに及ぶ。政権交代への幻滅、エネルギー政策、憲法、小沢一郎と話題は多岐にわたるが、

The common thread throughout the entire interview, however, was "the abandonment of modernity."
全編を貫くキーワードは「脱近代」である。
観念的と言えば観念的。

As the interviewer, Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of sociology at Toyo University and a former chief editor of the Asahi Shimbun's political news section, challenged Edano on his highly conceptual remarks.
インタビュアーの薬師寺克行東洋大教授（元朝日新聞政治部長）が、さまざまな突っ込みを入れている。

"So what do you mean by modernization?" Yakushiji asked.
　－－近代化とは？

Edano answered: "The economic development process in which we achieve affluence by selling products to other countries."
　枝野「経済成長のもとで、物を他国に売って豊かになっていくプロセスです」

"Are the things that the DPJ views as problematic, including the widening gap between the rich and the poor and rising unemployment, signs of the contradictions arising (from continued modernization)?" Yakushiji pushed further.
　－－民主党が批判している格差拡大や非正規雇用の増加はそうした（＝近代化継続の）矛盾の表れですか？

"Countries that have achieved modernity are chased by countries who are newly reaching modernity.
　枝野「近代化を成し遂げた国は、新たに近代化する国に追いかけられ、

When these modern countries try to compete on the same footing as up-and-coming countries, their societies deteriorate.
（新興国と）同じ土俵で競争すれば社会が悪くなっていく。

What (former Prime Minister Junichiro) Koizumi did was just that.
小泉（純一郎）さんがやったことがそれ。

I think such issues need to be overcome through the creation of a 'postmodern' social system."
こうした問題は『ポスト近代』の社会システムをつくることで克服すべきだと思う」……。

Though Suzuki and Edano may seem to have nothing in common at first glance, their similarities become clearer when one focuses on a certain characteristic: they're both key figures in deciding national policy whose real intentions are difficult to read.
　似ても似つかぬ２人だが、見方によっては共通点がある。国の重要政策を左右するキーパーソンだが、ハラの内は読めないというところだ。

Suzuki became prime minister in April 1945, nearing the end of World War II.

Cabinet members comprised military and "pro-peace" factions, and the legend goes that Suzuki, a former naval officer, did not reveal his true intentions.
　鈴木は第二次大戦末期の１９４５（昭和２０）年４月、首相になった。

Instead, he committed himself to saving the face of those pushing for more fighting, while artfully leading the way to peace.
当時、内閣は和平派閣僚と抗戦派閣僚の呉越同舟だった。海軍出身の鈴木は本心を明かさず、抗戦派の顔を立てながら、巧みに和平へ導いたというのが通説である。

How about Edano?
　枝野はどうか。

When it comes down to it, is he for nuclear power, or against it?
この人はつまるところ脱原発なのか、原発維持なのか。

People on both sides are desperately trying to figure out what lies in the minister's heart of hearts.
脱原発派も、原発維持派も、枝野の本心を読み解こうと一生懸命だ。

Of Japan's 54 nuclear reactors, only three are now running. If they, too, undergo scheduled inspections, all 54 will be out of operation by late April, with no prospects of restarting.
　全国５４基の原発は順次定期検査に入っており、このままなら４月末に全部止まる。

Edano had been expected to pour his efforts into talking local municipalities into giving the go-ahead for the restarts, but in a newspaper interview published on Jan. 27, he suggested that Japan would get by fine without nuclear power.
枝野は自治体に再稼働容認を働きかけるかと思いきや、「原発ゼロでも大丈夫」と言わんばかりの新聞インタビュー（朝日新聞１月２７日朝刊）が出た。

At a press conference on Jan. 18, Edano also made the comment: "Emotionally, I lean toward the notion that we should be as cautious as possible regarding the resumption of operations (of nuclear reactors)."
　「心情としては、再稼働に限りなく慎重であるべきだという主張に近い」という発言（１月１８日記者会見）もあった。

This is the same person, however, who has given his permission to the export of Japan's nuclear technology, and stands by the government's new growth strategy under which the exports will be carried out.
その枝野は、同時に、原発輸出を容認し、新成長戦略の旗を降ろさぬ枝野でもある。

Edano and the DPJ are at the center of contradiction and chaos.
　枝野も、民主党政権も、矛盾と混乱のまっただ中にいる。

Pressed about this, he responded: "The Meiji Restoration was also a time of confusion. Turbulent times themselves are not a problem. What's important is whether our actions lead to the construction of a new era."
そこを突かれると、枝野は切り返した。「明治維新も混乱期だった。混乱そのものが問題なのではなく、次の時代の建設に向かう動きかどうかということが本質だと思います」

It was in explaining to his interviewer that he is currently not aiming to become prime minister that Edano mentioned Suzuki.
　枝野が鈴木の名を持ち出したのは、「自分は今は首相を目指していない」と強調するくだりだった。

Suzuki only agreed to take the helm of the Cabinet at the recommendation of the Emperor's advisers and coaxing from the Emperor himself.
鈴木は敗戦間近、重臣の推挙と天皇の説得で渋々、内閣を率いた。

"People sought out by the specific era should become prime minister," Edano said. "They are the ones who accomplish great things."
「時代から求められた人が首相になるべきで、そういう人が大きな仕事をするんですよ」と枝野。

Will this era be calling on Edano?
　時代は枝野を呼び出すだろうか。

(By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
（敬称略）（毎週月曜日掲載）

毎日新聞　2012年2月6日　東京朝刊

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Feb. 6, 2012)
Rework arrangements needed to get relocation issue moving
沖縄局長「講話」　「普天間」前進へ態勢立て直せ（2月5日付・読売社説）

The Defense Ministry is considering possible punishment of Ro Manabe, chief of the Okinawa Defense Bureau, who reportedly encouraged his subordinates to vote in the mayoral election in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, slated for Feb. 12.
　防衛省が、１２日投票の沖縄県宜野湾市長選への投票を職員に呼びかけた真部朗沖縄防衛局長について、処分を検討している。

There is no denying that Manabe's actions could have led to misunderstandings, even though they may not have been illegal.
　違法ではないが、誤解を招きかねない行為だったのは否定できない。

Late last month, Manabe allegedly gave "lectures" on the mayoral election to 66 of his subordinates who either live in the city or have relatives there.
　真部局長は１月下旬、宜野湾市内に本人か親族が住む職員６６人に講話を行った。

While explaining the standpoint of the central government and prospective candidates on the issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station, located in Ginowan, Manabe called their attention to the principle that public servants must be politically neutral.
米軍普天間飛行場の移設問題に関する政府の立場や立候補予定者の考え方を説明する一方、「公務員は政治的中立性が要求される」と注意を促した。

At a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee to which he was summoned as an unsworn witness, Manabe emphasized that his lectures were rooted in the ministry's code of conduct for civil servants, which forbids recommending any particular candidate.
　真部局長は参考人として招致された衆院予算委員会でも、特定の候補を推薦してはいけないなどとする防衛省の服務規律の通達を踏まえた講話だったと強調した。

The upcoming mayoral election is likely to be a one-on-one fight between conservative and reformist candidates, with the outcome expected to affect the relocation issue.
　宜野湾市長選は保革一騎打ちが予想され、その結果は普天間問題にも影響すると見られていた。

===

Good intentions

Manabe, for his part, allegedly gave the lectures in the hope they would promote progress on the relocation issue, and meant to act within a scope that would not violate the Public Offices Election Law, which prohibits using the status of a public servant in an election campaign.
　真部局長とすれば、公務員の地位を利用した選挙運動を禁じる公職選挙法に抵触しない範囲で、普天間問題の前進の一助となれば、と考えて講話をしたのだろう。

The Defense Ministry has found that Manabe did not express support for any specific person during the lectures and there were no illegal acts.
　防衛省は、特定候補を支持する発言はなく、違法行為はなかったとしている。

The ministry's judgment can be called appropriate, in principle.
その判断は、基本的に妥当と言えよう。

Manabe allegedly gave similar lectures during recent elections, including one for the city assembly of Nago, also in the prefecture, held in 2010.
　真部局長は一昨年の名護市議選などでも同様の講話を行った。

This time the issue is more controversial, as local people have become highly critical of the bureau due to the inappropriate comments by Manabe's predecessor, which cost him his post in late November. There has also been turmoil over the delivery of an environmental impact report compiled by the central government regarding relocation of the base, and gaffes made by former and current defense ministers Yasuo Ichikawa and Naoki Tanaka.
　今回は、一川、田中の２代の防衛相の失言・迷言に加え、前任局長の不適切発言や環境影響評価書提出時の混乱で、沖縄防衛局への地元の視線が険しくなっていたことが、問題を大きくした。

Tanaka initially intended to penalize Manabe by replacing him on Friday.
　田中防衛相は当初、３日に真部局長を処分・更迭する考えだったが、

However, support for Manabe was expressed during the committee meeting and Tanaka's talks with senior ministry officials, leading him to postpone his decision on punishment.
予算委などで局長の擁護論が出たため、決定を先送りした。

Tanaka said that to aid the ministry's investigation of Manabe, he would have the bureau chief fulfill his responsibility to explain. This is a disgraceful stance, as Tanaka is trying to avoid his own responsibility for the confusion caused by the postponement of his decision.
　田中氏が「局長に説明責任を果たさせる」と語ったのは、判断先送りで混乱を招いた自らの責任を回避するもので、不見識だ。

===

Consider bureaucrats' morale

If the defense minister commits the similarly irresponsible act of forcing a bureaucrat to take the blame for the turmoil concerning a key policy issue, as the previous chief of the Okinawa Defense Bureau was forced to do, it will erode the morale of bureaucrats who are sincerely working on key policy issues. This would weaken the defense administration as a whole.
　前局長に続き、官僚に責任を押しつける安易な対応を重ねれば、政策課題に真剣に取り組んでいる官僚の士気をくじき、防衛行政自体を弱体化させかねない。

Also questionable is the response to this issue by the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito, which have criticized the administration of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda over the relocation issue.
　野田政権を追及する自民、公明両党の対応にも、疑問がある。

It was the then ruling coalition parties of the LDP and Komeito that decided to transfer the functions of the Futenma Air Station from Ginowan to the Henoko district of Nago.
　そもそも普天間飛行場の辺野古移設を決めたのは自公政権だ。

It is only reasonable for opposition parties to criticize any problematic elements of the government.
　野党として、政府の問題点を批判するのは当然だが、

But if they end up making it difficult to realize the relocation to the Henoko district, it will destabilize bilateral relations between Japan and the United States, thus damaging national interests.
結果として辺野古移設の実現を困難にすれば日米関係を不安定化させ、国益を損ねる。

Both parties need to make judgments from a broader perspective, instead of merely pursuing their party interests.
党利党略でなく、より大局的な対応が求められる。

The relocation issue is now at a crucial stage.
　普天間問題は今、正念場にある。

If the transfer to the Henoko district comes to a standstill, the Futenma Air Station will inevitably remain in the same location.
辺野古移設が頓挫すれば、普天間飛行場は固定化が避けられない。

The Noda administration needs to rework its arrangements and do its utmost to realize the relocation.
野田政権は態勢を立て直し、移設実現に全力を挙げるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 5, 2012)
（2012年2月5日01時34分  読売新聞）

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Feb. 4, 2012)
Resist Chinese pressure over Senkaku Islands
尖閣無人島命名　領土で中国の圧力に屈するな（2月3日付・読売社説）

What does the Japan-China agreement to make the East China Sea "a sea of cooperation and friendship" actually mean?
　東シナ海を「協力と友好の海」にするとの日中合意は何だったのか。

The government should call on China to exercise self-restraint and show a resolute attitude over territories and maritime interests.
　政府は、中国に今後も自制を促すとともに、領土や海洋権益で毅然(きぜん)とした態度を示すべきだ。

The Chinese government recently protested the Japanese government's plan to name four uninhabited islands in the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
　尖閣諸島にある四つの無人島に名称をつけるという、日本政府の方針に、中国政府が抗議した。

The Jan. 17 issue of the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, carried an editorial comment denouncing the plan as "a blatant move to damage China's core interests."
　１月１７日の中国共産党の機関紙「人民日報」は、「公然と中国の核心的利益を損なう振る舞いだ」と、日本を非難する評論を掲載した。

It is the first time China has used the expression "core interests" in connection with the Senkaku Islands.
尖閣諸島に「核心的利益」との表現を用いたのは初めてだ。

China defines "core interests" to mean national sovereignty, maintenance of territorial integrity and other areas over which it will not compromise at any price.
　中国の定義によると、「核心的利益」は、中国が絶対に譲歩できない国家主権や領土保全などを意味する。

China has used the expression for Taiwan and Tibet, but in recent years, Beijing reportedly used it for the South China Sea where armed conflicts with neighboring countries have occurred.
これまでは、台湾やチベットなどに用いていたが、近年は周辺国と武力衝突も起きた南シナ海にも使っているとされる。

By using such a strong expression, China is pressuring Japan with the apparent aim of forestalling the move to name the islands.
　中国側には、強い表現によって、日本に圧力をかけ、命名の動きにブレーキをかける狙いがあるとみられる。

===

Naming islands is correct

The Japanese government manages remote islands based on the Basic Law on Ocean Policy, which was enacted in 2007. Since 2009, Japan has named uninhabited islands one after another.
Until this process, the islands had no names although they are within the country's exclusive economic zone.
　日本政府は２００７年制定の海洋基本法に基づき、離島の管理に取り組んでいる。０９年以降、日本の排他的経済水域（ＥＥＺ）の基点でありながら、名前がない全国の無人島に対し、名付け作業を順次進めてきた。

The Senkaku Islands are an inherent part of Japan's territory and the Japanese government's move to name the islands is correct.
　尖閣諸島は日本固有の領土であり、政府の対応は当然だ。

There is no reason for Japan to be condemned by China.
中国側に非難されるいわれはない。

The Japanese government must quickly name the four islands with the help of the Okinawa prefectural and Ishigaki municipal governments and put those names on nautical charts.
政府は、地元の沖縄県や石垣市と調整し、名前を早急に確定して、海図に記載しなければならない。

Since September 2010, when a Chinese trawler collided with Japan Coast Guard vessels, Chinese fisheries patrol boats have increased their activities around the Senkaku Islands, and have even intruded into Japan's territorial waters.
　１０年９月の中国漁船衝突事件以来、尖閣諸島周辺で、中国は、漁業監視船によるパトロール活動を活発化させている。監視船による日本の領海侵犯も起きた。

As seen in its hard-line stance in the South China Sea, China has a strategy of expanding the sea areas it controls through faits accomplis.
　南シナ海で強硬姿勢を取ってきたように、中国には、既成事実を積み重ね、支配海域を広げていく戦略があるのだろう。

The JCG and the Self-Defense Forces must strengthen their vigilance and monitoring activities.
海上保安庁や自衛隊は警戒・監視活動を強化しなければならない。

===

Improve management

Depending on China's actions, it also will be necessary to improve management of the Senkaku Islands. 　中国の出方次第では、尖閣諸島に対する管理を強化することも必要だ。

Conducting maritime, meteorological and other scientific research on the Senkaku Islands is one idea.
政府が、尖閣諸島で海洋や気象などの科学的調査を実施するのも一案だろう。

Among gas fields near the median line between Japan and China in the East China Sea, Japan and China agreed to jointly develop a gas field known as Shirakaba in Japan and Chunxiao in China.
However, China has refused to resume negotiations on a treaty on joint development. This is a problem.
　東シナ海では、日中中間線近くのガス田のうち、両国が共同開発で合意した白樺（中国名・春暁）の条約交渉再開に中国が応じていないのも問題だ。

A flare was recently confirmed at the Kashi gas field, known as Tianwaitian in China.
　折しも、中国の樫（中国名・天外天）の採掘施設で炎が確認された。

Beijing's development of gas fields without Japan's consent closes the path to resolving problems through negotiations.
日本の同意なしで、一方的に開発を進めるのは、話し合いによる問題解決の道を閉ざす。

It is natural for Japan to protest to China and it must continue to press Beijing to stop developing the gas fields unilaterally.
政府が中国に抗議したのは当然で、開発中止を求め続ける必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 3, 2012)
（2012年2月3日01時19分  読売新聞）

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Feb. 4, 2012)
Egypt must rebuild economy by building democracy
エジプト議会　民主化遂行で経済立て直しを（2月3日付・読売社説）

An important milestone has been achieved in Egypt's progress toward democracy.
　民主化への重要な一里塚である。

An election for the People's Assembly, or lower house of parliament, has been carried out, with a political party founded by the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic fundamentalist organization, emerging as the biggest winner.
　エジプトで、人民議会（下院）選が行われ、イスラム原理主義組織「ムスリム同胞団」が設立した政党が第１党となった。

After the overthrow in February last year of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak, the transfer to civilian government has been progressing under the provisional rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.
　１年前のムバラク政権崩壊後、軍最高評議会の暫定統治下で、民政移行プロセスが進行中だ。

Another major advance for democratization is the fact that the National Emergency Law, which granted overwhelming powers to the police, was lifted in principle for the first time in about 30 years in the wake of the lower house election.
下院選後、警察に絶大な権限を与えた「非常事態法」が約３０年ぶりに原則的に解除されたのも前進だ。

The Muslim Brotherhood had been banned from engaging in political activities under the Mubarak regime, although it garnered considerable public support through its benevolent activities, such as providing medical services to the poor.
　ムスリム同胞団は、貧困層への慈善や医療活動などで社会に浸透していたが、旧政権下で弾圧され政治活動を禁じられていた。

===

Thorny road to power shift

This time, however, it was free to take part in the parliamentary election, fielding candidates of its own party, the Freedom and Justice Party.
　しかし、今回は自前の政党「自由公正党」を押したてて議会選に臨むことができた。

The party won nearly a half of the lower house seats, and its secretary general has been elected speaker of the lower chamber.
下院では定数の半数近い議席を獲得し、党幹事長が下院議長に選ばれた。

Nevertheless, there are a mountain of challenges that must be resolved before the shift from the provisional rule to a civilian government can be realized.
　とはいえ、民政移行まで踏むべきステップは多い。

If the ongoing election of the upper house, or Shura (Consultative) Council of the legislature, is concluded in February as scheduled, the two chambers are to set up a 100-member panel to draft a constitution. The draft of the new constitution will then be put to a national referendum, and a new president is to be elected by the end of June.
　いま行われている上院選が２月中に終われば、議会は憲法起草委員会を設置する。新憲法案が国民投票にかけられ、６月末までに大統領選が行われる予定だ。

There are fears that the process of writing the new constitution may be hard going, as it will face such issues as the powers and duties of the president and parliament, what role the military should play and to what extent the constitution should reflect Islamic teachings.
　憲法の中身をめぐっては、大統領と国会の役割や、軍の位置づけのほか、イスラム色がどこまで反映されるか、などが議論のポイントで、難航する恐れもある。

This is because while many young Egyptians have been seeking an immediate end to military rule, many others still pin their hopes on the military as a source of stability during the transition.
　国内には、若者層を中心に軍政の即時終結を求める声もあるが、安定を保障する存在として軍に信望を寄せる国民も多いからだ。

How relations develop between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood is said to be of key significance to Egypt's political future.
　軍とムスリム同胞団の関係が、今後の政治動向のカギを握ると言えよう。

If the two remain hostile to each other, as they did in the Mubarak era, the country's politics can hardly move forward.
旧政権下のように、互いに敵対していては、政治は前に進むまい。

Reconciliation and compromise between the two forces are indispensable for averting confusion.
混乱の回避へ、歩み寄りが求められる。

The military and the Muslim Brotherhood also have a responsibility to buckle down to the task of rehabilitating the Egyptian economy.
　軍とムスリム同胞団には、経済再建に取り組む責任もある。

===

Islamic strength on rise

The economic downturn in Egypt ever since last year's political upheaval has been serious, resulting from such causes as sharp declines in the number of tourists.
　昨年の政変以降、観光客が激減するなど、経済の落ち込みは深刻だ。

The military rulers have acknowledged the need for support from the International Monetary Fund and have entered negotiations with the IMF on specific aid plans.
軍政は、国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）による支援の必要性を認め、協議に入った。

The Muslim Brotherhood is committed to efforts to make Islamic values compatible with a market economy.
　ムスリム同胞団は、イスラムの価値観と市場経済の両立を目指し、

For example, it has indicated it is in favor of adopting a policy of exempting foreign tourists from the Islamic ban on drinking.
外国人観光客にまで禁酒を強いるような戒律の強制はしない方針を示唆している。

This can be taken as a sign of pragmatism on the part of the Muslim Brotherhood in light of the importance of tourism to the Egyptian economy.
エジプト経済における観光の重みを踏まえた、現実路線の表れに違いない。

In parliament, the Freedom and Justice Party is reportedly groping for ways to formulate an alliance with secular political parties.
　議会では、自由公正党は世俗派政党との連携を模索中だ。

Attention is being paid to whether the FJP and secular parties can reach an agreement on basic policy matters.
基本政策で合意はできるのかどうか。

In the Middle East and North Africa, where the storm of transformations called the "Arab Spring" has been blowing, the power of Islamist forces has been on the rise along with moves for democratization.
　「アラブの春」と呼ばれる変革の波に洗われる中東・北アフリカ地域では、民主化に伴い、イスラム主義勢力が台頭している。

The Muslim Brotherhood's moves from now on will likely serve as a litmus test about whether democracy can take root in these regions.
エジプトのムスリム同胞団の動向は、この地域で民主化が定着するか否かを占う試金石になろう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 3, 2012)
（2012年2月3日01時19分  読売新聞）

(Mainichi Japan) February 2, 2012
Editorial: Gov't intervention in Okinawa election unacceptable
社説：沖縄防衛局長　選挙介入が常態なのか

The chief of the Defense Ministry's Okinawa Defense Bureau was recently found to have held a "lecture" for bureau employees about the upcoming Feb. 12 Ginowan mayoral election. It emerged that the bureau had earlier made a list of voters pertaining to employees and their relatives living in the city, which houses the United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.
　防衛省沖縄防衛局が沖縄県宜野湾市長選（１２日投開票）の「有権者リスト」を作成し、真部朗（まなべろう）局長が職員に「講話」を行っていた。

The actions of the bureau and its chief, Ro Manabe, constitute electoral intervention by the government, which is unacceptable.
政府機関による選挙への介入とも言うべきもので、言語道断である。

The revelations came after a Japanese Communist Party legislator raised the issue in the Diet.
　共産党が国会で取り上げて明らかになった。

The ensuing survey by the Defense Ministry has disclosed that the Okinawa Defense Bureau compiled a list of its employees living in Ginowan as well as employees who have relatives in the city -- whose numbers totaled 80 -- at the instruction of Manabe.
Employees on the list were gathered for his lecture, in which he called on them to vote in the upcoming mayoral election.
防衛省の調査によると、真部局長の指示で同市在住の職員や同市に親族がいる職員８０人のリストを作り、職員への講話で市長選への投票を呼び掛けていた。

During the lecture, Manabe reportedly introduced the profiles of those who were expected to throw their hats in the mayoral race and pointed out that the will of Ginowan residents is important as the city hosts the Futenma air base.
　講話では、市長選立候補予定者を紹介し、米軍普天間飛行場を抱える宜野湾市民の民意が重要であることなどを指摘したという。

Although the Defense Ministry survey concluded that the local bureau chief did not "support any specific potential candidate," no record of the content of the lecture exists to back up the finding.
「特定の立候補予定者を支持する内容は確認されなかった」との調査結果だが、講話内容の記録はない。

The Public Offices Election Law prohibits any election campaign that utilizes the position of a national public servant, while the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) Law strictly regulates political activities by SDF personnel, including civilian members.
　公選法は、国家公務員による地位を利用した選挙運動を禁じ、自衛隊法は、文官を含む自衛隊員の政治的行為を厳しく制限している。

The outcome of the Ginowan mayoral election will have a major impact on the planned relocation of the Futenma base to the Henoko district of Nago in Okinawa Prefecture.
　宜野湾市長選の行方は、普天間移設問題にも大きな影響を与える。

If a lecture is given about potential candidates shortly before the election, it is only natural for attendants to think that the lecture hints at endorsing a prospective candidate favoring the government's policy on the base issue -- even if no direct mention is made about supporting a specific person.
その選挙直前に候補予定者などについて講話を行えば、特定候補予定者への支持に直接、言及がなかったとしても、基地問題の政府方針に都合がよい候補予定者の後押しに含意がある、と受け取るのが普通だろう。

Okinawans have erupted in anger time and again over government blunders relating to the Futenma relocation issue.
These include inappropriate remarks by a former head of the Okinawa Defense Bureau and gaffes by former Defense Minister Yasuo Ichikawa in the Diet.
　普天間をめぐっては、前沖縄防衛局長の不適切発言、前防衛相の国会答弁などが沖縄の怒りを買った。

Manabe's words and actions only add fuel to the fire and are set to deepen Okinawans' distrust in the government and make it even harder to settle the base issue. The local bureau chief, as a matter of course, should be sacked.
真部局長の言動が沖縄の不信を増幅させ、問題解決を一層難しくすることは明らかだ。更迭が当然である。

It should be noted that Manabe had also given lectures ahead of two elections in Nago -- the Nago mayoral election in January 2010 and the Nago Municipal Assembly election in September that year -- both of which focused on whether the city would agree to hosting the functions of the Futenma base.
　見逃せないのは、真部局長がかつて、政府が普天間の移設先とする同県名護市の選挙でも講話を行っていたことである。名護市では１０年１月に市長選、同９月に市議選があり、普天間移設受け入れが争点になっていた。

Manabe gave the lectures in his capacity as head of the Okinawa Defense Bureau.
当時の沖縄防衛局長は真部氏だった。

The government should also investigate the timing and other details of these lectures.
政府はこの講話の時期や実態についても調査すべきだ。

When a referendum on whether to accept a plan to construct an offshore heliport in Nago in connection with the Futenma relocation was held in December 1997, employees of the Naha Defense Facilities Administration Bureau staged a de facto vote-gathering campaign by visiting voters door-to-door and distributing brochures -- drawing criticism from local residents.
　同市では９７年１２月、普天間移設に絡んで海上ヘリポート建設計画の是非を問う市民投票が実施されたが、那覇防衛施設局の職員が戸別訪問やパンフレット配布などで事実上の集票活動を展開、地元で批判を浴びたことがある。

If such interventions in elections and other events are found to have repeatedly taken place, they should be regarded as a structural problem.
選挙などへの介入が繰り返し行われていたとすれば、構造的問題である。

Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka, who has supervision over such issues, has been blasted over his poor remarks. Regarding the frequency of U.S. military helicopter flights around the Futenma base, for example, he said, "There aren't so many (helicopters), are there?" He has also been targeted over repeated apologies and corrections during Diet sessions.
　これらの問題を監督する田中直紀防衛相は、普天間周辺での米軍ヘリ飛行について「そんなに多くないのでは」と発言、国会答弁でも訂正、陳謝を繰り返すなど、拙劣な発言と対応が目立つ。

The opposition parties have questioned Tanaka's qualifications as defense minister.
野党からは資質を問う声も出ている。

The government faces a crucial test in discontinuing use of the Futenma base at its present location and removing the danger posed to residents in the vicinity.
　普天間飛行場の固定化（継続使用）を回避し、周辺住民の危険性を除去するために、政府は今後、正念場を迎える。

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda should rise to the forefront and do his utmost to resolve the Futenma issue.
ここは、野田佳彦首相が前面に立って、普天間問題の解決に全力を尽くすしかない。

(Mainichi Japan) February 1, 2012
Editorial: Nuclear regulatory reform must weed out entrenched interests
社説：原子力新規制　既得権益の見直しも

Bills relating to a shift in the nation's nuclear power policy were approved by the Cabinet on Jan. 31. In addition to the establishment of a new nuclear regulatory agency under the Environment Ministry, the government is aiming to legislate the lifespan of nuclear reactors, and require plant operators to outline specific measures against severe nuclear accidents.
　政府は東京電力福島第１原発の重大事故を踏まえ原子力規制を転換するための法案を閣議決定した。環境省の外局として「原子力規制庁」を設置するほか、原発の寿命やシビアアクシデント（過酷事故）対策なども法律で義務づける内容だ。

Significant harm has been done by allowing the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), an administrative body tasked to regulate nuclear power safety, to exist under the umbrella of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), a major promoter of nuclear power.
　これまで、原子力の安全規制を担う原子力安全・保安院が原発の推進を担う経済産業省に属していたことの弊害は大きい。

Divorcing nuclear regulation from nuclear promotion and centralizing regulatory duties into one agency stands to reason.
規制を利用から分離し、原子力規制庁に一元化するのは当然のことだ。

Changing the agency's name from the originally proposed "nuclear power safety agency" to "nuclear power regulatory agency" is likewise pertinent, considering the new agency's nature.
当初の仮称だった原子力安全庁を改め原子力規制庁とするのも、組織の性格を考えれば妥当だ。

However, the mere alteration of a name and rearrangement of an organization will not result overnight in a highly independent agency specializing in regulation.
　ただし、表向きの名前を変え、組織を組み替えただけで、規制に特化した独立性の高い組織が一夜にしてできるはずはない。

Because many of the new agency staff members are likely to come from NISA, specific measures are necessary to secure the independence of the new body.
規制庁の人員の多くは保安院から横滑りすることになり、独立性を確保するための具体的な工夫が求められる。

It remains unclear how a nuclear safety investigation committee, envisaged in one of the bills approved by the Cabinet, will contribute toward ensuring the safety of nuclear power.
　新たに設ける「原子力安全調査委員会」も、原子力の安全確保にどのように貢献できるのか、まだ判然としない。

Since the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC) lost the confidence of the Japanese public over its response to the ongoing nuclear disaster, the new committee cannot expect to gain it back without demonstrating its independence and competence.
内閣府の原子力安全委員会が今回の事故対応で信頼を損なっただけに、独立性と能力を国民に示せなければ不信はぬぐえないだろう。

The handling of the continuing nuclear crisis has been problematic particularly due to the government's lack of readiness, which has generated suspicions that the disaster could have been mitigated had the government been more capable of crisis management.
　今回の事故対応では緊急時の危機管理に大きな問題があり、これが事故を拡大させた疑いがある。

Crisis management will be an important duty of the new regulatory agency, and must be attended to adequately.
危機管理は規制庁の重要任務であり、これにも十分に力を注ぐべきだ。

Meanwhile, some things have slipped through the centralization of regulatory responsibilities.
　安全規制の一元化から取り残されている部分もある。

Safety research conducted by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and the inspections and other safeguards implemented by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to prevent the diversion of nuclear material toward the production of nuclear weapons will not fall under the jurisdiction of the new regulatory agency.
日本原子力研究開発機構が行う安全研究や、核物質が核兵器などに転用されることを防ぐために文部科学省が行う監視や査察（保障措置）は規制庁に移管されていない。

It remains to be seen how these tasks will be integrated into the new scheme.
今後の課題だ。

Included in the latest bills are the designation of a 40-year lifespan for nuclear reactors and the implementation of "back-fit" measures that would hold existing reactors to the latest technological standards.
　今回の改正法案には、原発の寿命を原則４０年とすることや、最新の技術基準への適合を既存原発にも義務づける「バックフィット」が盛り込まれている。

The government claims that the combination of these two mandates would make it extremely difficult for reactors to continue running more than 40 years.
政府は、この両者をあわせることで４０年以上の運転は極めて難しいとの見方を示しているが、

The bills, however, include special exemptions allowing reactors to operate for up to 60 years.
最大で６０年まで延長できる例外規定も含まれている。

Stringent criteria must be set to prevent "exceptions" from undermining the rule.
なし崩しに運転が延長されることのないよう厳格な条件を設ける必要がある。

We hope also that the proposed legal reforms lead to a stronger nuclear disaster prevention scheme.
　法改正による原子力防災体制の強化にも注目したい。

In the case of the Fukushima disaster, the off-site emergency response center failed to function.
今回の事故では緊急対策の拠点となるオフサイトセンターが機能しなかった。

A fundamental review of Japan's nuclear crisis preparedness is imperative.
抜本的な見直しは欠かせない。

Along with an expansion of disaster protection zones emphasizing nuclear disaster countermeasures, there is a pressing need to reassess national and regional disaster prevention plans.
原発事故に重点的に備える防災対策区域の拡大に伴い国や地域の防災計画の見直しも急務だ。

Numerous corporations and organizations make up the national framework that had heretofore promoted nuclear power, and their role in "amakudari" -- literally "descent from heaven," referring to the practice of former bureaucrats taking advisory posts in industries they previously regulated -- has been pointed out.
　原子力を推進してきた国全体の構造の中には多数の法人や団体があり、天下りの弊害も指摘されている。

For effective regulations to gain ground, it is important to extend reform to such organizations with entrenched interests.
実効性のある規制を進めるためには、こうした既得権益を持つ組織や団体の改革もこの機会に併せて行うことが重要だ。

毎日新聞　2012年2月1日　東京朝刊

まずは草食系男子を鍛え直さなければなりません。
神様は男性が女性を征服するような身体（からだ）の構造（つくり）を与えられました。
外聞ですが、肉食女子が草食男子を餌食としているような話もあります。
ここは草食系男子を自衛隊、海保、警察学校等に入れて鍛え直さなければなりません。
自分の国は自分たちで守るというスタンスからも、良い政策となり得るのではないでしょうか。
戦後６０年、そろそろチェインジングの時期だと思いますが。如何でしょうか。
（スラチャイ）

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 31
EDITORIAL: Demographic forecasts point to grim future for Japan
５０年後の人口―未来を変えるために

New forecasts about Japan’s population for the period until 2060, released on Jan. 30 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, paint a gloomy picture of the nation’s demographic future.
　２０６０年までの新しい推計人口が、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所から発表された。

The speed at which the Japanese population will shrink in the coming decades is simply stunning. The number of Japanese will decrease by 41.32 million in the next half century to about two-thirds of the current figure, according to the forecasts.
　日本の人口が減少する速さには驚くほかない。５０年間で４１３２万人減って、今の約３分の２になってしまう。

What should we do in response to these dire predictions?
　この予測を前に、私たちはどう行動すればよいだろうか。

We should first take actions for the sake of our children.
　まず、すでに生まれている世代に関する対応だ。

The number of people aged 65 or older will peak at 38.78 million in 2042, when the children of baby boomers join the ranks of the elderly.
　６５歳以上は、団塊ジュニアが高齢期に入る４２年に３８７８万人となり、ピークを迎える。

That would be an increase of 9.3 million from now.
今より約９３０万人の増加だ。

It is necessary to improve and expand health- and nursing-care programs as well as livelihood support for elderly citizens.
　医療や介護、生活支援の受け皿を整える必要がある。

An increase in the tax burden is unavoidable to finance these steps.
そのためには国民の負担が重くなるのは、やむを得ないだろう。

Meanwhile, the number of children aged 14 or younger will keep falling, down to 7.91 million in 2060, less than half of the current figure.
　０～１４歳の子どもは一貫して減り続け、６０年には今の半分以下の７９１万人になる。

This age group will account for less than 10 percent of the overall population.
総人口の１割を切る。

The pace of the contraction of the young population will be slower than previously expected due to a slight rise in the fertility rate--the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime--in the past few years.
　最近の出生率の回復傾向を反映し、減少のスピードは緩んだが、

But the trend toward fewer children will remain unchanged.
長期的な少子化の傾向は変わっていない。

The institute has estimated the fertility rate at 1.35, way below the 2.07 needed to keep the population from shrinking.
　推計では１人の女性が産む子どもの数を１．３５と仮定している。人口減少に歯止めがかかる２．０７には遠く及ばない。

If the demographic trends remain unchanged, the ratio of people aged 65 or older to the overall population would rise to nearly 40 percent five decades down the road from around 23 percent now, according to the forecasts.
　６５歳以上が人口に占める割合である高齢化率は、今は２３％ぐらいだが、このままだと５０年後には４０％近くまで上昇するというのが今回の推計だ。

Can we change the predicted demographic future of our country?
　この未来を変えることができるだろうか。

If the fertility rate gradually rises until it stabilizes at 2.07 in 2030 onward, the percentage of senior citizens will peak in the 2040s in the 30 to 35 percent range, and then fall before stabilizing around 25 percent range over the long term, according to an estimate by Shigesato Takahashi, deputy director-general of the institute.
　同研究所の高橋重郷副所長の試算によると、出生率が上昇していき、３０年以降２．０７で安定した場合、高齢化率は４０年代に３０％台前半でピークを打ち、長期的には２０％台半ばに落ち着くという。

That is a tough target to achieve.
　高い目標ではあるが、

But growth of the child population would certainly stabilize the nation’s demographic structure.
子どもの数が増えれば、人口ピラミッドは安定する。

There is a huge difference in vitality between a society where one in every 2.5 members is an elderly citizen and a society where the ratio is one in every four.
高齢者が２．５人に１人か、４人に１人かで社会の活力は大きく違う。

What is especially notable is the fact that the number of women giving birth to a child at the age of 30 or older is larger than the number having a baby at younger than 30.
　注目すべきは、母親の出産年齢で３０歳以上が２９歳以下を上回っていることだ。

The number of babies born to a mother aged 35 or older has increased by about 130 percent from 15 years ago.
３５歳以上での出生数は１５年前の約２．３倍に増えている。

This trend raises the question of whether more Japanese working women will decide to have a baby after building a career to some extent.
　ある程度キャリアを積んだ後に子どもを産むという決断ができるか。

It is necessary to further improve the environment for women trying to raise children while working.
仕事をしながら子育てができる環境をもっと充実させなければいけない。

Although surveys show that nearly 90 percent of unmarried Japanese, both men and women, want to get married, the new demographic forecasts are based on the assumption that one in every five Japanese will not.
　また、９割近くの未婚男女は結婚したいと考えているのに、今回の推計では５人に１人は結婚しないという前提を置いている。

Meanwhile, already married couples are not expecting to have the number of children they actually want.
すでに結婚しているカップルも、持ちたい子どもの数を実現できないでいる。

Behind these facts is widespread anxiety about economic future.
　いずれも経済的な不安が背景にある。

From this point of view, policy efforts to improve the employment situation of young Japanese are very important.
若年層の雇用改善はこの点でも重要だ。

Each one of us Japanese living today is responsible to do what he or she can to change our society’s demographic future for the better.
　将来を変える責任は今を生きる一人ひとりが負っている。

(Mainichi Japan) January 30, 2012
Anxiety and inattention over Tokyo's next Big One
風知草：首都地震、不安と油断＝山田孝男

Last week, the possibility of a new political party being formed under the leadership of Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara emerged, but Tokyoites were more shocked by news indicating there was a 70 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake hitting the capital within four years.
　先週、首都圏住民をギョッとさせたニュースは増税より石原新党より、「Ｍ（マグニチュード）７級の首都地震、４年以内に７０％」だった。

The news caused a stir because it was based on projections by the authoritative Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) at the University of Tokyo.
　それも天下の東大地震研究所の試算だというので騒ぎになった。

I visited professor Naoshi Hirata, 57, director of the institute's Earthquake Prediction Research Center, thinking the institute's announcement daring.
But I soon learned that this figure was not an "announcement."
思い切った発表をしたものですね、と平田直（なおし）教授（５７）＝地震予知研究センター長＝に聞きに行って初めて知ったが、発表ではなかった。

The episode is very interesting.
このてんまつは興味深い－－。

An initial report on the likelihood of a major quake appeared in The Yomiuri Shimbun's Jan. 23 morning editions. 　初報は読売新聞２３日朝刊だった。

In a front-page exclusive, the daily reported the news with the banner headline: "70% chance of magnitude-7 level Tokyo earthquake within 4 yrs.''
１面で「首都直下型／４年内７０％／Ｍ７級／東大地震研試算」と特報した（東京本社最終版）。

The Nikkei, The Tokyo Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun followed suit in their evening editions and The Asahi Shimbun and The Sankei Shimbun caught up with them in their Jan. 24 editions.
日経、東京、毎日が夕刊で追い、朝日と産経は２４日朝刊で伝えた。

All trailing dailies had almost identical headlines.
各紙とも見出しは読売と同じである。

TV stations quickly reported the news through their news departments as well as in other programs. 　テレビは報道部門だけでなく、各局ごとにいくつもある情報番組が一斉に反応した。

Overwhelmed by a barrage of reports by news organizations, the ERI published a special explanation online to account for the reasons behind the Yomiuri report.
オールマスコミの怒とうの攻勢に音を上げた地震研が、ホームページ上に読売報道の背景解説のための特設サイトを立ち上げたというのが実情だった。

Adding a twist to the saga was the fact that the ERI's study team had reported its predictions at an open forum last fall, and they were covered by the mass media.
　しかも、地震研の研究チームのこの見解は昨秋、公開の研究発表会で報告され、報道もされている。

Looking back, the Mainichi Shimbun reported in its Sept. 17, 2011 editions that there was a 98 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake striking the metropolitan region within 30 years.
そう聞いて毎日新聞の縮刷版にあたると、はたして９月１７日朝刊３面に「首都圏直下／Ｍ７級／３０年で９８％」という記事があった。

According to Hirata, a 98 percent chance within 30 years and a 70 percent chance within four years mean the same thing.
　平田によれば、「３０年以内に９８％」と「４年以内に７０％」は同じである。

But human beings, as they are, take the 30-year span lightly and are surprised by the four-year timeline.
だが、人間、３０年ならまだ先と侮り、４年と聞けば驚く。

The Yomiuri keenly restructured the publicized data and emphasized the period "within four years," causing a big public reaction and forcing other news outlets to follow suit.
読売は公表ずみのデータを鋭角的に再構成し、「４年以内」を強調したことで反響を呼び、他のマスコミも追随せざるを得なかった。

As I was looking into the circumstances surrounding the quake prediction story, the nonfiction book "The Great Kanto Earthquake," by Akira Yoshimura (1927-2006), occurred to me.
　この経緯を調べて思い出したのが吉村昭（１９２７～２００６）のノンフィクション「関東大震災」である。

From the end of the Meiji era to the early Taisho period, Akitsune Imamura, an assistant professor of seismology at Tokyo Imperial University (now the University of Tokyo), predicted a Tokyo earthquake in newspaper and magazine articles.
　明治の末から大正の初めにかけ、東京帝大地震学教室の今村明恒助教授は新聞・雑誌で首都地震を予言した。

But Fusakichi Omori, Japan's foremost authority on seismology and chairman of seismology at the national university, was worried about a commotion in society and tried to defuse public anxiety, resulting in a standoff with Imamura.
一方、日本の地震学の最高権威と仰がれた同教室の大森房吉主任教授は社会の動揺を懸念、火消しに努めて今村と対立した。

On Sept. 1, 1923, the magnitude-7.9 Great Kanto Earthquake devastated Tokyo and its vicinity. Omori lost face and died in frustration, while Imamura was catapulted into fame.
　１９２３（大正１２）年、関東大震災（Ｍ７・９）が発生、面目丸つぶれの大森は失意の中で死に、今村の時代がくる。

But Imamura had sparked confusion when freely talking about earthquakes before eventually toning his warnings down.
今村は求められるまま奔放に発言して混乱が拡大、しだいに寡黙になっていく……。

The balance between earthquake predictions and reporting is delicate.
　地震予知と報道の呼吸は微妙だ。

When I asked Hirata if the latest episode reminded him of the row between Omori and Imamura, he said with a wry smile, "It's not such a big deal."
大森・今村論争を意識したかと聞くと、平田は「そんな大それた話じゃない」と苦笑しつつ、こう言った。

"A magnitude-7 quake's energy is one thousandth of the (magnitude-9) Great East Japan Earthquake.
　「マグニチュード７のエネルギーは東日本大震災（Ｍ９）の１０００分の１ですよ。

We did not predict an inland earthquake in the capital," Hirata says. "
首都直下と予測したわけでもない。

The reports tended to cause misunderstanding but were meaningful in that they sounded an alarm against inattention in the Kanto region.
誤解を招きやすい報道でしたけれども、関東地方の油断に警鐘を鳴らす意義はあった。

The chances of a big earthquake are greater than before and it is necessary to prepare."
大地震の発生確率は前より高まっており、備えは大事です」

At the outset of a news conference on Jan. 27, Tokyo Gov. Ishihara mentioned disaster-prevention steps, believing there would be questions about the University of Tokyo's predictions. However, none of the questions related to the earthquake predictions.
　石原慎太郎・東京都知事は２７日の記者会見の冒頭、「どうせ質問が出るだろう」と先回りして防災を語ったが、質問はゼロ。

His 30-minute news conference solely covered questions about the new political party under consideration.
３０分の会見はすべて石原新党に費やされた。

The shocking reports about a 70 percent chance of an earthquake hitting the metropolitan area within four years didn't appear to make a dent at all at the news conference.
衝撃の「４年以内に７０％」報道とはいえ、その程度のものだった。

News reports are cues for people to become aware of inattention.
　報道は油断に気づくきっかけに過ぎない。

The bottom line is how to react in an emergency situation.
いざという時、どう動くか。

Yoshimura's parents went through the Great Kanto Earthquake.
吉村昭は関東大震災を体験していないが、両親は被災した。

During U.S. air raids on Tokyo in the closing days of World War II, Yoshimura got yelled at by his father when he tried to flee with a pack on his back.
東京大空襲（４５年）でリュックを背負って逃げようとした時、その父に「手ぶらで逃げろ」と怒鳴られた。

Tales by survivors of the March 11 disasters and Yoshimura's books are filled with survival tips that cannot be found by looking to disaster-prevention goods.
　３・１１を生き延びた人々の体験談や吉村の著作には、防災グッズでは得られないものが詰まっている。

(By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
毎日新聞　2012年1月30日　東京朝刊