June 28, 2016 (Mainichi Japan)
Editorial: Japan must remain calm in wake of 'Brexit' referendum
英の離脱と日本 拙速避け冷静に対応を

In response to the so-called "Brexit" referendum, in which those pushing for Britain to leave the European Union (EU) won by a small margin, the Japanese government has been holding a series of meetings to discuss measures to mitigate possible negative effects on the Japanese economy.
英国の欧州連合(EU)離脱を選択した国民投票を受け、日本政府が連日のように対応を協議している。

When the results of the vote came out on June 24, a meeting of involved ministers was held with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in attendance, and on June 25, an emergency meeting was held among the Finance Ministry, the Financial Services Agency and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The government and the BOJ held an emergency meeting on June 27, and the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy is to meet on June 28.
投票結果が判明した24日、安倍晋三首相も出席して関係閣僚会議が開かれ、翌日は財務省、金融庁、日銀による緊急会合が行われた。週明けの27日も政府と日銀が緊急会合を開催し、28日には経済財政諮問会議が予定されている。

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) policy chief Tomomi Inada has stated that measures, including foreign exchange intervention, should be instituted, and some are calling for economic policies that are to be mapped out in the fall to be expanded to at least 10 trillion yen.
円高阻止のための市場介入や大型経済対策、日銀の追加金融緩和を求める前のめりの発言も出ている。
自民党の稲田朋美政調会長が「(為替)介入も含めて対策を打っていくべきだ」と発言したほか、今秋に打ち出す予定の経済対策について「10兆円以上」といった規模拡大を唱える向きもあるようだ。

Is this the government's way of showing the public and the markets that it's taking watertight measures to prevent a crisis? As the House of Councillors election -- about which the ruling LDP has said the economy is a priority issue -- approaches, any market turmoil could work to the government's and ruling coalition's disadvantage.
「万全な危機対応をしている」と国民や市場にアピールする狙いなのか。経済を最大の争点に掲げた参院選が迫る中、市場の動揺は政権与党にとって不利に働く恐れがある。
だが、政府や日銀が現段階で過剰反応するのはどうだろう。

How smart it is, though, for the government and the BOJ to react so drastically at this point in time? It's hard to believe that a vote in favor of Britain's exit from the EU could have a direct and immediate effect on small- to mid-sized Japanese companies. Suggesting such effects could inadvertently make Japan the target of speculators, and increase economic burdens on the public in the future. What we need now is levelheaded analyses and careful deliberation of the merits and demerits of measures.
英国の離脱で、一足飛びに中小企業支援というのも分かりづらい。かえって市場で投機筋の標的にされたり、将来の国民負担を増大させたりする可能性がある。リスクの冷静な分析と対策の功罪の慎重な検討が必要だ。

The latest Brexit "shock" differs in nature from the shock Japan experienced in the past when its economic bubble burst. It's questionable whether traditional policy measures such as public spending and monetary easing will be effective in the latest case.
今回の英国発「ショック」は、バブルの崩壊による過去の危機とは性質を異にする。財政出動や金融緩和といった従来型の政策対応が有効なのか疑問だ。

Moreover, depending on how things unfold from here on out, the economic impacts will differ greatly. British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has stated that unless there is a "clear view" of Britain after it leaves the EU, he will not begin the procedures necessary for an actual exit. For Japan, amid these circumstances, to rush to implement full-fledged fiscal measures ahead of other countries will only serve to expose Japan's discomposure.
しかも離脱が今後どのように展開するかによって、経済への影響は大きく変わってくる。英国のオズボーン財務相は離脱後の姿がはっきりするまで離脱手続きを開始しないと表明した。そうした中、日本が他国に先駆け、本格的な経済対策に踏み切れば、動揺ぶりが露呈する。

Even in the epicenter of it all, where the pound plummeted, Britain is trying to keep its cool, with Osborne stating that the British economy remains strong, and can withstand the repercussions that Brexit could have.
通貨ポンドが暴落した、震源地の英国でさえ、「英経済は引き続き強く、離脱の影響を乗り越えられる」(オズボーン財務相)と努めて冷静さを保とうとしているのである。

Japanese finances are in a far worse state than Britain's. If the Japanese government moves to increase public spending on a massive scale, on top of the re-postponement of the consumption tax hike that Prime Minister Abe recently decided on, the Japanese public will have an even heavier burden to bear in the future.
日本の財政は英国よりはるかに悪い。消費増税を先送りした上に、ここで大規模な財政出動という「吹かし」に走れば、将来の国民負担は一段と重くなる。

There also is a limit to how far the BOJ can relax monetary policy. The additional purchase of investment trust shares by the BOJ may cause a temporary rise in stock market prices. But if the central bank were to be in possession of massive amounts of assets that have the risk of plummeting, confidence in the Japanese economy could fall and the yen could take a nosedive, generating turmoil in markets.
日銀の金融緩和も限界にある。株式の投資信託を買い増せば、一時的に株式相場は上昇するかもしれない。だが、下落の可能性がある資産を中央銀行が大量に保有すれば、日本経済への信用が低下し、円の暴落など、市場の混乱を招く危険がある。

We must not forget that employing stopgap measures whenever there were slight fluctuations in markets -- so as to win elections and maintain approval ratings -- is what led to Japan having the worst debt among industrialized countries and the BOJ's massive stockpile of government bonds.
選挙や支持率を意識するあまり、市場が動揺するたびに目先の対応に走った結果が、先進国最悪の借金と、日銀内に積み上がった国債であることを忘れてはならない。

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