The Yomiuri Shimbun
China needs structural reforms to achieve stable economic growth
中国ＧＤＰ減速　安定成長へ構造改革が急務だ

How can China’s economy shift onto a track of stable growth, while preventing itself from stalling?
景気の腰折れを防ぎながら、いかに安定した成長軌道へ移行するか。

Steering China’s economy as its growth continues to slow down has become an ever more difficult task.
減速が続く中国経済の舵かじ取りは、一段と難度を高めている。

China’s real gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent year on year in 2015, the lowest growth in 25 years.
中国の２０１５年の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）が前年比６・９％増と、２５年ぶりの低い伸びとなった。

The sluggish growth primarily stems from slackened investment and production activities, as efforts to get rid of excessive production capacity and real property inventory have made little progress.
過剰な生産設備や不動産在庫の解消が進まず、投資や生産活動が鈍ったのが主因だ。

Exports also declined 2.8 percent from the previous year. As the country’s price competitiveness weakened due to rising labor costs, its status as “the world’s factory,” exporting and selling low-priced products in great volume, has lost much of its luster.
輸出も前年より２・８％減少した。人件費の上昇で価格競争力が弱まり、安価な製品を大量に輸出・販売する「世界の工場」の地位が色あせてきた。

China had set its full-year growth target at “around 7 percent.” The National Bureau of Statistics of China emphasized that “the 6.9 percent growth is still in line with the government target.” But the country’s high growth model led by investment and exports is already approaching its limits.
中国は成長目標を「７％前後」としてきた。国家統計局は「６・９％の成長率は政府の目標に符合している」と強調したが、投資と輸出中心の高成長モデルはもはや限界に近づいている。

It is a matter of urgency for China to shift to a consumption-driven growth model, as advocated by the administration of President Xi Jinping.
習近平政権の掲げる消費主導の成長モデルへの転換が急務だ。

The Chinese authorities said they will promote structural reforms, such as reducing the systemic oversupply of steel and coal. Temporary stimulus measures alone, such as increasing public spending, will not be sufficient. It may be necessary to force through reforms while overcoming resistance from state-owned enterprises and local governments stubbornly hanging on to their vested interests.
当局は、鉄鋼や石炭の過剰供給体制の縮小など、構造改革を進めるという。財政出動などの一時的な景気刺激策だけでは不十分だ。既得権益に固執する国有企業や地方政府の抵抗を抑えて、改革を断行する必要があるだろう。

Better numbers needed

In stimulating consumption, developing new products and new services sought by consumers would be effective. In order to bring out the vigor of the private sector, which would serve as a pillar of innovation, it is essential to reorganize and shrink state-owned enterprises.
消費喚起には、顧客の望む新製品や新たなサービスの開発が有効だ。イノベーション（技術革新）の担い手となる民間の活力を引き出すためにも、国有企業の再編・縮小が欠かせない。

It is worrisome that China’s economic statistics lack credibility. There is strong suspicion that the Chinese authorities calculate statistics on the high side to make the nation’s economy look better than it really is. They should not relax their reform efforts, while patching things up for the time being with make-believe figures.
気がかりなのは、中国の経済統計が信頼性を欠いていることだ。経済を実際より良く見せるため、当局が統計を高めに算出しているとの疑念は根強い。見せかけの数字で当座を取り繕って、改革の手を緩めてはなるまい。

Concerns over the uncertain outlook of the Chinese economy and the yuan’s fall have brought about a vicious cycle in the international flow of money, becoming a serious risk factor for the global economy.
中国経済の先行き懸念と人民元安は、国際的な資金の流れに悪循環を引き起こし、世界経済の深刻なリスク要因になっている。

The projected decline in China’s oil demand, in line with its economic slowdown, has further dampened crude oil prices. Drops in crude oil prices are driving the “oil money” of the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, whose fiscal conditions have deteriorated, to return to their domestic markets, which is said to be a factor behind a worldwide decline in stock prices.
景気減速に伴う中国の石油需要の減退予測は、原油価格の低迷に拍車をかけた。原油安は、財政が悪化した中東産油国の「オイルマネー」を国内へと回帰させ、世界株安の一因とされる。

Further decline in the value of the yuan has accelerated an exodus of capital out of the country. Fears are rising that the performance of Chinese companies, burdened with debts denominated in foreign currencies, will deteriorate.
人民元安の進行は、資本の国外流出を加速させた。外貨建ての負債を抱える中国企業の業績を悪化させる恐れが高まっている。

Also, in order to keep the yuan from weakening further, it is important to create an environment for foreign investment funds to go back to China again, by promoting financial system reforms, including easing regulations on currency trading and liberalization of interest rates.
人民元安に歯止めをかけるためにも、為替取引の規制緩和や金利自由化などの金融制度改革を進めて、中国に再び投資資金が向かう環境を整えることが肝要だ。

Grasping the structural change in China’s economy, Japanese businesses also have to review their business plans so that they can meet the new needs of consumers and businesses in China.
日本企業も中国経済の構造変化を捉え、中国の消費者や企業の新しいニーズに応えられるよう、ビジネスを見直さねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 20, 2016)

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Use implementation of Iran N-deal to build stability in Middle East
イラン制裁解除　合意履行を中東安定へ生かせ

How to draw Iran into the world community and bring stability to the Middle East, which has been thrown into an increasing state of confusion? A crucial moment lies ahead to tackle this challenge.
イランを国際社会にいかに引き込み、混迷を深める中東情勢の安定につなげるか。これからが正念場である。

Iran and six other countries — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — have announced the implementation of a nuclear deal reached last July that called for lifting sanctions by the United States, the European Union and the U.N. Security Council in return for Iran’s downsizing of its nuclear facilities.
米英仏独露中の６か国とイランは、イラン核施設の縮小と引き換えに、米国や欧州連合（ＥＵ）、国連安全保障理事会の制裁を解除する昨年７月の核合意の履行を発表した。

Iran has already transferred most of its stored low-enriched uranium to Russia and removed two-thirds of 19,000 centrifugal separators for enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed this in an on-site inspection.
イランは既に、貯蔵していた低濃縮ウランの大半をロシアに搬出し、濃縮用の遠心分離器約１万９０００基の３分の２を撤去した。国際原子力機関（ＩＡＥＡ）の査察官が現地で確認した。

This would extend the period needed for Iran to complete the production of nuclear weapons from a range of “two to three months” to a range of “one year or more” if the country undertakes it. The IAEA maintains surveillance, and sanctions will be reimposed if violations are found. This can be lauded as a measure to put the brakes on nuclear development to a certain degree.
イランが核兵器製造に着手しても、完成までの期間は「２～３か月」から「１年以上」に延びた。ＩＡＥＡが監視し、違反があれば制裁は再発動される。核開発への一定の歯止めと評価できよう。

U.S. President Barack Obama said the world would be “more secure.” To prevent Iran from moving to become a nuclear power after the 15-year period for implementation of the deal ends, it is essential for the United States and other related countries to support Iran’s moderate reform policy line.
オバマ米大統領は「世界はより安全になった」と強調した。１５年間の合意履行期間終了後、イランが核保有に動き出さないよう、米国など関係国が穏健改革路線を後押しすることが欠かせない。

Given the release of U.S. citizens, including a reporter, who had been held by Iran, the channel between the two countries with no diplomatic relations has strengthened.
イランが拘束していた米国人記者らが解放され、国交のない米国とイランのパイプは一層太くなった。

How to use this to end the civil war in Syria and wipe out the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militant group is now the question.
シリア内戦の終結や過激派組織「イスラム国」の掃討などにどう生かすかが問われる。

Rebuild alliance

Iran, a major Shiite-dominated Muslim country, supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and has been intensifying its confrontation with Saudi Arabia, a leading country of Sunni Muslims, which calls for the ouster of Assad. Israel is also nervous about ballistic missile development by Iran, a country which is hostile to it.
イスラム教シーア派大国のイランはシリアのアサド政権を支援し、「アサド退陣」を求めるスンニ派の盟主サウジアラビアとの対立が先鋭化している。イスラエルは、敵対するイランの弾道ミサイル開発にも神経をとがらせる。

Washington has announced additional sanctions against Iran over its missile development, but Saudi Arabia and Israel have become deeply distrustful of the United States. Obama must push ahead with reestablishing the alliance with the two countries.
米国はミサイル関連で対イラン追加制裁を発表したが、サウジとイスラエルの対米不信は根深い。オバマ氏は、両国との同盟関係の再構築も進めねばならない。

Iran will resume crude oil exports and expand transactions significantly with foreign financial institutions and businesses, which had been subject to a de facto ban due to sanctions imposed by the United States. Crude oil bills said to total $100 billion and other funds, which have been frozen in bank accounts of foreign countries, will become accessible.
イランは原油輸出を再開し、米国の制裁で事実上禁じられていた外国金融機関、企業との取引が大幅に拡大する。計１０００億ドルとされる原油代金などの外国口座の資金も凍結が解除される。

Iran’s crude oil reserves rank fourth in the world, and its natural gas reserves rank first. Other countries place high expectations on the country’s market, sustained by its rich natural resources and population of nearly 80 million people.
原油埋蔵量が世界４位、天然ガスは１位という豊富な資源と、８０００万人近い人口を抱える市場に対する各国の期待は大きい。

Japan, which has concluded an investment agreement with Iran, expects diversification of its sources for crude oil procurement, an increase in automobile exports and an entry into plant facilities construction and management. Efforts must be made to promote information gathering and realize participation in the Iranian market.
投資協定締結で合意している日本は、原油調達先の多角化や自動車などの輸出増加、プラント進出を見込む。情報収集を進め、市場参入に結びつけたい。

Of concern is a scenario in which crude oil prices drop further with Iran producing more, thereby causing the worsening of economic conditions in oil-producing countries and global declines in stock prices. If Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a continued struggle for hegemony in the Middle East, neither the abatement of regional tensions nor the stability of the world economy can be expected.
懸念されるのは、イランの増産で原油安が進み、産油国の経済悪化と世界的な株安を招く事態である。サウジとイランが覇権争いを続ければ、中東情勢の沈静化も、世界経済の安定も望めまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 19, 2016)

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 16
EDITORIAL: A heavy price to pay for Abe's short-sighted economic policy
（社説）株安と安倍政権　経済政策に「百年の計」を

The Japanese stock market has been in serious turmoil since the start of the year. The benchmark Nikkei stock average fell in all of the first six days of trading. Postwar Japan had never before experienced a New Year six-day losing streak. During the first two weeks of the year, the Nikkei was temporarily more than 2,000 points lower than its close at the end of 2015.
株式市場で年初から波乱含みの展開が続いている。日経平均株価は大発会から６営業日連続で下げた。これは戦後初めての事態だ。年初来の下げ幅も合計で一時２０００円を超えた。

The stock market’s rout was due mainly to overseas factors like China’s increasingly pronounced economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the decline of stock prices has come as a heavy blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has been stressing the fact that the Nikkei index has more than doubled during the three years since he took office as a major achievement of his "Abenomics" economic policy.
中国経済の減速など海外要因が理由とはいえ、政権３年間で株価が２倍以上に上昇したことを「アベノミクスの成果」と誇る安倍政権にとっては痛手だろう。

Even so, neither the government nor the Bank of Japan should scramble to take new measures to prop up stock prices immediately.
だからと言って政府や日本銀行が目先の株価対策に走るようなことがあってはならない。

The stock market’s climb in the past three years has been driven mainly by the BOJ’s aggressive monetary expansion. In the meantime, the economy as a whole has been barely growing. That means the market rally has not been underpinned by an improvement in the real economy.
これまでの株高は、超金融緩和によってもたらされた側面が強い。経済成長のほうはゼロに近いわずかな伸びにとどまっており、実体経済とは遊離した株高だったと言える。

If so, the government’s economic policy should not be affected by what is happening in the stock market. The government should take the latest stock market retreat as a warning signal calling for an effective long-term economic strategy.
ならば、経済政策が株価に振り回される必要はない。政府には、この株安を長期的な備えを促す警鐘として受け止めてほしい。

The direction of the flow of money in the world is beginning to change radically. Late last year, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board ended its zero interest rate policy and raised interest rates for the first time in seven years.
The Fed’s action has set off a reversal in the direction of the flow of money. For years, money had been moving from industrial nations into emerging countries. The global glut of liquidity created by monetary easing in most of the developed world is likely to shrink in the coming years.
世界のお金の流れは大きく変わろうとしている。昨年末、米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が７年ぶりにゼロ金利を解除し、利上げに踏み切ったことで、先進国から新興国へと流れていたお金の潮流に巻き戻しが始まった。世界中でだぶついていた緩和マネーは今後収縮していく可能性が強い。

Major adjustments in world stock markets that have received a big boost from global monetary expansion are inevitable. The downturn of the Japanese stock market in the past two weeks should be seen as a consequence of this structural shift in the global trend. It should be assumed that the epic global stock market rally actually ended last summer when China’s fall-off in growth battered markets around the world.
緩和の恩恵を受けてきた株式市場で調整がおきるのは避けられない。最近の日本の株安もそういう構造変化の文脈でとらえたほうがいい。世界中が歴史的な株高に沸いた時期は、昨夏のチャイナ・ショックまでと見るべきだろう。

PRICE OF SHORTSIGHTED ECONOMIC POLICY
■目先優先のつけ回る

The Abe administration has shown a troubling tendency to place too much importance on short-term results and evaluations in its economic policy. The administration appears to have failed to take into account the implications of its economic policy for future generations as it has focused too much on meeting the current expectations of the public.
安倍政権の経済政策は、短期的な成果や評価を重視しすぎるきらいがある。人々の目の前の期待に応えようとする一方で、将来世代への視点を著しく欠いているのではないか。

Symptomatic of this tendency is how the government has been crafting the policy proposal to exempt foodstuffs from the scheduled consumption tax increase in April 2017.
来年４月に予定される消費増税で食料品などに導入する軽減税率を巡る政策対応は、その典型と言っていい。

Although the government has no clear plan to raise the estimated 1 trillion yen ($8.5 billion) needed to finance the food exemption, Abe recently indicated in a Diet session that the government will consider using the increase in tax revenues for that purpose.
軽減税率を構えるために必要な財源１兆円のめどがたっていないなかで、首相は国会で「税収上ぶれ分」を検討することに言及した。

It is extremely irresponsible to count on an increase in tax revenues when deciding on such a permanent economic policy measure.
税収が予想より増えるのをあてにして恒久的な政策を決めるのは、きわめて無責任だ。

If tax revenues fail to rise above the estimate, the government will end up funding the measure with new debt. In other words, this approach will only pass on the problem to future generations.
税収が予想より増えなかった場合、結局は、政府が新たな借金でしのぐしかなくなる。つまりは、これも将来世代への問題の先送りにすぎない。

The BOJ’s “different dimension” monetary easing, which has been supporting Abenomics, also entails an “invisible financial burden on the public.”
アベノミクスを支える日銀の異次元緩和にも「見えない国民負担」が隠されている。

Currently, the central bank is purchasing huge amounts of government bonds at high prices. When the economy starts picking up, however, bond prices will fall while yields rise. Monetary tightening in response to improvement in economic conditions will result in heavy losses for the BOJ due to negative yields. The central bank could even find its liabilities exceeding its assets. This is a situation that will require taxpayer money to be used to cover the losses.
いま日銀は高値で国債を大量購入しているが、いずれ景気がよくなれば国債価格は下落（利回りは上昇）する。その局面での金融引き締めは日銀には逆ざやとなって巨額損失が見込まれる。債務超過の恐れもある。穴埋めに使われるのは国民の税金である。

This, too, is an approach that could force future generations to pay the price of a shortsighted policy focused on bolstering economic growth and stock prices in the near term.
足元の経済成長や株高という目先の政策を優先してきたつけが将来に回りかねない危うさがここにも潜んでいる。

MORE ATTENTION TO INTERESTS OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
■将来世代と連結で

Still, the administration insists that Abenomics is working. Then why are Japanese companies reluctant to raise wages and eager to build up cash reserves, even though they are generating record profits? Why are Japanese consumers unwilling to ramp up their spending?
それでも政権は「アベノミクスは成功している」としている。ならば、なぜ企業は史上最高益をあげても賃上げに及び腰で、内部留保をため込むのか。国民が消費に尻込みするのはどうしてなのか。

Keiichiro Kobayashi, a professor of economics at Keio University, says the “short-term optimism” expressed emphatically by the government has underscored its failure to face up to the harsh reality, resulting in the spread of “long-term pessimism” among companies and consumers.
小林慶一郎慶大教授は「“短期楽観”を強調する政府の姿勢そのものが厳しい現実を見ていないことを露呈し、かえって企業や消費者を“長期悲観”に陥らせている」という。

Shifting the burden to future generations will not change the fact that taxpayers in this country will have to cover the price sooner or later.
国民負担を先送りしても、いずれ、この国の誰かが支払わなければならない。

The burden could grow further in the meantime, leading to bigger tax increases and sharper spending cuts over time. There is even the possibility that people’s livelihoods may be threatened by hyperinflation in the future.
先送りしている間にそれがいっそう膨れあがり、時間の経過とともに増税や歳出削減の規模が大きくなってしまうかもしれない。いつか超インフレに襲われ生活が脅かされる可能性だってある――。

It seems that the Japanese people are increasingly aware of these possibilities and acting accordingly.
国民はすでにそう予感し、行動しているのではないか。

In order to allay such anxiety among the public, it is necessary for the government to evaluate and announce both the short- and long-term effects of policy measures by estimating their consolidated results for retirees, the working population and future generations.
そんな不信を取り除くには、リタイア世代、現役世代、将来世代をあわせた現在と未来の「連結決算」で政策効果を検証し、国民に示す必要がある。

At the beginning of the year, both the stock market and the business community were brimming with optimism about the nation’s economic outlook. It was as if market players and business leaders believed that they would be saved by simply talking themselves into betting on the government’s claim that everything will go well.
年初には株式市場や経済界には経済の先行きを楽観する声があふれていた。政権と声を合わせ「うまくいく」と自己暗示をかけることが救われる道なのだと信じているかのように。

REAL CHALLENGE IS FISCAL REHABILITATION
■財政再建こそが課題

But the era of excessive liquidity due to extreme easing of the monetary policy is now coming to an end. The government’s excessively optimistic growth forecasts--a nominal economic growth of 3 percent and a real economic growth of 2 percent--and its medium-term fiscal plan, based on this hope-for-the-best policy stance, will both turn out to be serious mistakes sooner or later.
だが、超金融緩和がもたらしたカネ余りの時代は終わりを迎えようとしている。「名目３％、実質２％成長」という楽観に楽観を重ねた政府の経済見通しと、それに基づく中期財政計画は早晩、行き詰まる。

Pushing through fiscal reforms based on more realistic views about the nation’s economy, which also take account of the possibility of a prolonged period of economic stagnation, will become the biggest policy challenge.
さえない経済の時代が長く続くことも想定した現実的見通しに基づいて財政再建を進めていくことが、最重要課題になるはずだ。

The current Diet session is considering a draft supplementary budget that contains an outlay for cash payments to the elderly with small pension pots, a measure that has all the hallmarks of a giveaway of taxpayer money.
今国会でも、ばらまき的色彩が濃い低年金高齢者への給付金を盛り込んだ補正予算案が審議されている。

The Abe administration’s attention is apparently focused on this summer Upper House election.
安倍政権の関心は夏の参院選対策に向けられているのだろう。

Politicians should look further into the future and tackle fiscal rehabilitation under a farsighted policy program. The Abe administration should concentrate its policy efforts on such challenges.
もっと先も見据え、日本の国家運営の「百年の計」を考えて財政再建に取り組む姿勢がいまの政治にほしい。政権のエネルギーはそこに注ぐべきだ。

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Rapid rapprochement with China led to new administration in Taiwan
台湾総統選　対中急接近が生んだ蔡新政権

The people of Taiwan have applied the brakes to rapid rapprochement with China.
中国への急接近に台湾住民がブレーキをかけたと言えよう。

In the presidential election in Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, chair of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — the biggest opposition party — won by a wide margin over her main rival, namely Chu Li-luan. Chu is chair of the ruling Nationalist Party, which has pursued a policy of bringing about reconciliation with China. The election marked the first change of government in eight years.
台湾総統選で、「台湾独立」志向が強い最大野党・民進党の蔡英文主席が、対中融和を進めてきた与党・国民党の朱立倫主席らに大差をつけて、当選した。８年ぶりの政権交代である。

Concern that Taiwan might be swallowed up by China if Taiwan’s reconciliatory policy toward China continued at the current pace may have expanded public support for Tsai.
このままのペースで対中融和が続けば、中国に呑のみ込まれてしまいかねない。そんな不安が、蔡氏の支持を拡大したのだろう。

In the previous presidential election held four years ago, Tsai asserted, “Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country” and was defeated by Taiwan’s current president, Ma Ying-jeou.
蔡氏は、４年前の前回総統選で、「台湾は既に主権独立国家」と主張し、馬英九総統に敗れた。

As Taiwan has increasingly become economically dependent on China, concern over possible deterioration in relations between Taiwan and China has spread among business and other circles.
中国への経済依存が強まる中、経済界などで対中関係悪化への懸念が広がったからだ。

Tsai’s election strategy this time proved effective. She repeatedly reiterated her pledge to maintain the status quo in relations with China — not to seek independence or unification — while suppressing the pro-independence tone of the DPP.
今回は、民進党の「独立」色を封印し、「独立」でも「統一」でもない「現状維持」の方針を繰り返し訴える戦術が奏功した。

Public opinion polls showed that the majority of people in Taiwan support maintaining the status quo.
世論調査によると、台湾住民の大半は、「現状維持」を望んでいる。

In her victory speech, Tsai said, “Our message to the international community is that democracy is deeply ingrained in Taiwan.”
蔡氏は「台湾に民主主義が浸透していると、国際社会に伝えることができた」と勝利宣言した。

Imbalance spurs resentment

The Nationalist Party’s Chu has touted to voters the stability in Taiwan-China relations, in light of the first summit talks between Taiwan and China held in November. Yet there was deep resentment among the people that the fruits of closer economic ties with China have been felt only by the wealthy.
国民党の朱氏は、昨年１１月の初の中台首脳会談を踏まえ、中台関係の安定をアピールしてきた。だが、住民には、経済緊密化の恩恵が一部の富裕層にしか及んでいないという反発が根強かった。

The Nationalist Party also suffered a major defeat in polls to elect legislators, held simultaneously with the presidential election. This has been attributed to a growing sense of “Taiwanese identity” among the young generation, the perception that China and Taiwan are separate.
国民党は、総統選と同時に行われた立法委員（国会議員）選でも大敗した。中国と台湾は別だとする「台湾人意識」が若い世代の間で高まったためとみられる。

The DPP has won a majority in the legislature for the first time, which is expected to lead to a stable administration.
民進党は初めて単独過半数を獲得し、安定政権へ道筋をつけた。

The New Power Party, led by young Taiwanese who opposed Taiwan’s policy toward China and unlawfully occupied the parliament in 2014, also won seats. This indicates that the new party has absorbed those who were dissatisfied with the Nationalist Party-led administration.
２０１４年、対中政策に反対し、立法院（国会）を占拠した若者ら中心の新党「時代力量」も議席を得た。国民党政権への不満の受け皿になったことを示している。

The urgent challenge for Tsai is to achieve economic development that will be felt among the Taiwanese people, while stabilizing Taiwan’s relations with China.
蔡氏にとっては、対中関係を安定させつつ、経済発展を達成し、その成果を台湾住民に実感させられるかどうかが喫緊の課題だ。

It is worrisome that Tsai has not accepted the “1992 consensus,” under which both China and Taiwan recognized the “One China principle.” China’s administration under President Xi Jinping, which aims to eventually realize the unification of China and Taiwan, has indirectly warned that unless Tsai recognizes the 1992 consensus, there will be no “status quo.”
蔡氏の不安要素は、中台双方が「一つの中国」の原則を認めたとされる「１９９２年合意」を受け入れていないことだ。
将来的な「統一」を狙う習近平政権は間接的な表現ながら、９２年合意を認めなければ、「現状維持」はできないと警告している。

Should Tsai continue to refuse to endorse the 1992 consensus, China is likely to apply pressure by restricting cross-strait economic exchanges, thus rocking the new administration. China’s trump cards may include curbs on Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan and direct flights between China and Taiwan.
蔡氏が９２年合意を拒否し続けるのなら、経済交流に圧力をかけ、新政権を揺さぶるつもりではないか。台湾を訪れる中国人観光客や旅客機の直行便の制限などもカードの一つだろう。

The future course of the cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan will affect the stability of East Asia. China must respond appropriately.
台湾海峡の行方は、東アジアの安定に関わる。中国に求められるのは、責任ある対応である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 17, 2016)

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Break chain of anxiety triggered by China causing turmoil in global markets
金融市場大荒れ　中国発の不安連鎖を断ち切れ

Turmoil in the global financial markets, caused by uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy, has been continuing.
中国経済への不信を震源とする世界の金融市場の動揺が続いている。

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the benchmark Nikkei average briefly tumbled below 17,000 points. It later firmed up to a certain degree, but the Nikkei average has dropped as much as 1,800 points since the beginning of January.
東京市場の日経平均株価は一時、１万７０００円を割り込んだ。その後は、やや持ち直したが、年明け以降の株価の下げ幅は１８００円にも達した。

The plunge in Tokyo stock prices was triggered by the 15 percent drop in the Shanghai stock market since the beginning of this year. Fluctuations of stock prices have also continued in major stock markets in the United States, Europe and other countries in Asia.
中国・上海市場が年初来、１５％も下落したことが引き金となった。欧米、アジアの主要市場でも株価の乱高下が止まらない。

The turmoil has been partly caused by investment money having nowhere to go in markets plagued by fear over the stagnation of China’s economic growth and the plummeting value of the yuan.
中国経済の成長鈍化と、通貨・人民元の下落への不安感が市場を覆い、投資マネーが行き場を失ったことが混乱を招いている。

The decline of stock prices has also been spurred by oil-producing countries selling huge amounts of stock in markets around the world as the fall of crude oil prices shows no sign of bottoming out.
原油相場の下落に歯止めがかからない中、産油国が各国市場で保有株を大量に売却したことも株安に拍車をかけている。

On the New York market, the crude oil price briefly dropped to the $29 range per barrel, the lowest level in 12 years. But still no signs of a rebound are evident.
米ニューヨーク市場では、原油が一時、１バレル＝２９ドル台まで下がり、１２年ぶりの安値をつけた。反発のきっかけも見えない。

This chain of anxiety has to be broken to calm down the markets. Cooperation among the monetary authorities of all countries is essential, but China’s responsibility is particularly grave.
不安の連鎖を断ち切り、市場の沈静化を図る必要がある。各国金融当局の協調が大切だが、とりわけ中国の責任は重大である。

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government is aiming at a “new normal” economy, meaning the transition of the Chinese economy from investment-based growth to stable, consumption-led growth. But it has not yet clarified the path to achieve this.
習近平政権は、投資中心の成長から消費主導の安定成長に移行する「新常態」（ニューノーマル）を目指しているが、その道筋は明確になっていない。

Map out path

The Chinese government should take measures to prevent a rapid downturn of the current economy, and formulate plans to reform state enterprises and deal with nonperforming loans at regional financial institutions. Beijing should specify a road map for such policy measures.
当面の景気の急減速を防ぐ手立てを講じる。さらに、国有企業改革や地域金融機関の不良債権処理などを具体化する。こうした政策の工程表を明示すべきだ。

It also must try to communicate carefully with markets, changing its makeshift actions over systems to suspend trading and restrict stock transactions when a market experiences sudden change.
相場急変時の取引停止制度や株の売却規制をめぐる場当たり的な対応を改め、市場と丁寧に対話する努力も欠かせない。

The United States ended its zero-interest policy in December, and is eyeing the possibility of raising interest rates further. It must consider carefully when interest rates should be raised again, and how much the hike should be, after analyzing what effect the country’s monetary policy will have on the global market.
米国は昨年１２月、ゼロ金利政策を解除し、一段の利上げを視野に入れる。自国の金融政策が国際市場にどう波及するかを分析し、次の利上げ時期や上げ幅を慎重に検討することが求められる。

Meanwhile, it is important for Japan to prevent the current turmoil in its domestic market from having a negative effect on the real economy.
日本は、現在の国内市場の動揺が実体経済に悪影響を及ぼさないようにすることが重要だ。

Companies have logged record-level earnings, and the Japanese economy is making a mild recovery. The falling crude oil prices have benefits for corporate activities and household economies. We don’t have to be too pessimistic about the current economic situation.
企業は過去最高水準の好業績を記録し、景気は緩やかな回復を続けている。原油安も、企業活動や家計にはメリットがある。過度に悲観する必要はあるまい。

However, the yen’s rising value is a source of concern. Many Japanese companies assume an exchange rate of $1 to about ¥120. If the yen becomes stronger than its current value of $1 for about ¥117, it will push down the earnings of export-oriented companies such as automakers and electronics manufacturers.
ただ、円高の進展は懸念材料である。企業の多くが想定する円相場は、１ドル＝１２０円前後だ。現在の１１７円前後より円高が進めば、自動車や電機といった輸出関連企業の業績を下押ししよう。

While paying consideration to such concerns, the government must prioritize enhancement of its growth strategy. We expect the government to raise the level of the nation’s economy by proceeding with the creation of new enterprises and the development of employment opportunities.
こうした懸念に目配りしつつ、何より必要なのは、政府の成長戦略を強化することだ。新事業の創出や雇用機会の拡大を進めて、経済の底上げを急ぎたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 16, 2016)

Jehovah’s Witnesses—Who Are We?
エホバの証人とは

We come from hundreds of ethnic and language backgrounds, yet we are united by common goals.
エホバ の 証人 は 世界 中 に い て，人種 や 国籍 は 様々 です が，同じ 目的 で 結ば れ て い ます。

Above all, we want to honor Jehovah, the God of the Bible and the Creator of all things.
何 より も，すべて の もの を 創造 し た 聖書 の 神エホバを 賛美 し たい と 思っ て い ます。

We do our best to imitate Jesus Christ and are proud to be called Christians.
また，クリスチャンと し て，イエス･ キリスト に 倣お う と 励ん で い ます。

Each of us regularly spends time helping people learn about the Bible and God’s Kingdom.
聖書 や神 の 王国に つい て 学ぶ の を 助ける 活動 に，皆 が 参加 し て い ます。

Because we witness, or talk, about Jehovah God and his Kingdom, we are known as Jehovah’s Witnesses.
エホバ 神 と その 王国 に つい て 語る ゆえ に，エホバ の 証人と し て 知ら れ て い ます。

Explore our site. Read the Bible online. Learn more about us and our beliefs.
この サイト を ご覧 に なれ ば，エホバ の 証人 と その信じ て いる 事柄に つい て もっと 知っ て いただけ ます。

https://www.jw.org/en/
https://www.jw.org/ja/

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Park bears heavy responsibility to implement ‘comfort women’ deal
日韓慰安婦問題　合意履行に朴氏の責任は重い

At a time when North Korea’s latest nuclear test has threatened the stability of the region, improving Japan’s relations with South Korea is an urgent task. The leadership of South Korean President Park Geun-hye will be tested on this issue.
北朝鮮の核実験で地域の安定が脅かされる中、日韓関係改善は急務だ。韓国の朴槿恵大統領の指導力が問われている。

During her New Year press conference, Park spoke about the deal Tokyo and Seoul reached late last year on the so-called comfort women issue. Park reiterated her position to seek public support for the deal, saying she would “do [her] best to ensure its content was acceptable.”
朴氏は年頭の記者会見で、昨年末の日韓による慰安婦問題の妥結について、「合意内容が受け入れられるよう最善を尽くす」と述べ、国民の理解を求める姿勢を強調した。

The deal is a breakthrough that improved the strained ties between Japan and South Korea. It is natural that Park will exert every possible effort to make sure the deal is smoothly implemented.
合意は、停滞していた日韓関係に突破口をもたらした。朴氏が合意の円滑な履行に向けて、最大限の努力をするのは当然である。

Public opinion surveys conducted in South Korea have revealed that many people are displeased with the deal. Their reasons include the view that “opinions of former comfort women were not listened to.” A support group for former comfort women blasted the deal and said it “betrayed” the South Korean people. Ripples created by this comment are spreading.
韓国の世論調査では、「元慰安婦の意見を聞かなかった」などとして、合意を評価しない人が多い。元慰安婦支援団体が、合意は国民への「裏切り」だと反発していることに波紋が広がっている。

Park insisted the government had held talks with former comfort women and the support group 15 times before the deal was reached and had listened to their wishes. She emphasized that three important points — clarifying the involvement of the former Imperial Japanese Army; an official apology from the Japanese government; and compensation funded by the Japanese side — were all reflected in the deal.
朴氏は、政府が事前に１５回も元慰安婦や支援団体と協議し、要望を聞いたと力説した。旧日本軍による関与の明確化、日本政府の公式謝罪、日本側予算による補償という３点が重要で、すべて合意に反映されていると主張した。

Under the agreement, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed an apology and the government recognized the involvement of military authorities at the time. The Japanese government will contribute about ¥1 billion as humanitarian support to a foundation the South Korean government will establish to assist former comfort women. Park’s explanation aims to deepen public understanding of the deal.
合意では、日本側が軍の関与を認め、安倍首相がお詫わびを表明した。韓国政府が設立する元慰安婦支援の財団に、日本政府が人道支援として、約１０億円を拠出する。朴氏の説明には、合意への国民の理解を深める狙いがある。

Worrying signs

It is questionable that, concerning the statue of a girl symbolizing comfort women in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul, Park said this was “not the kind of issue the government can give orders over.” The Japanese government has demanded the statue be removed, and South Korea promised it would strive to resolve this issue in an “appropriate” manner. The statue issue must not be left unaddressed.
朴氏がソウルの日本大使館前の少女像について、「政府がああしろこうしろと言える問題ではない」と語ったのは、疑問だ。日本が撤去を求め、韓国は「適切な解決」への努力を約束した。このまま放置することは許されまい。

Recently, the Seoul Eastern District Court ordered Prof. Park Yu Ha, author of “Teikoku no Ianfu” (Comfort women of the empire), to pay compensation to former comfort women who claimed the scholar’s book defamed them.
ソウル東部地裁は、学術書「帝国の慰安婦」の著者、朴裕河教授に対して、元慰安婦の名誉を傷つけたとして賠償を命じた。

The ruling acknowledged that, based on the 1993 Kono Statement and other sources, the comfort women had been “forcibly mobilized” and “forced to live like sex slaves.” This ruling was one-sided in contradicting Japan’s position on this issue and went too far. It must not be allowed to negatively impact the implementation of the comfort women deal.
判決は、１９９３年の河野官房長官談話などを根拠に、慰安婦が「強制動員され、性奴隷同様の生活を強要された」と認定した。日本の立場に反する一方的で、行き過ぎた判断である。合意の履行に悪影響を与えてはならない。

After launching her administration, Park devoted considerable effort to strengthening ties with China. However, since North Korea’s nuclear test, it is apparent Seoul and Beijing differ in their fervor in dealing with Pyongyang.
朴政権は発足後、対中関係の強化に力を入れてきた。だが、核実験後は、対北朝鮮政策を巡って中国との温度差が目立っている。

In her “remarks to the people” that Park made at the start of her press conference, she expressed dissatisfaction with China’s refusal to ease its reluctance to impose tougher sanctions on North Korea. Park also clearly stated she would “consider” the proposed deployment of a cutting-edge U.S. missile defense system in South Korea — a plan China opposes.
朴氏は、記者会見の冒頭に発表した国民向けの談話で、中国が制裁強化に慎重な構えを崩さないことに不満を示した。中国が反対する最新鋭の米ミサイル防衛システムの韓国配備についても、「検討していく」と明言した。

Park’s move to lessen her excessive leaning toward China, and her switch to attaching greater importance to cooperation among Japan, the United States and South Korea on security issues, will boost the deterrent against North Korea.
朴氏が対中傾斜を修正し、安全保障を巡る日米韓の連携を重視する方向に転じたことは、北朝鮮への抑止力を高めよう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 15, 2016)

The Yomiuri Shimbun
United States must do everything possible to regain global leadership
オバマ演説　指導力回復へ全力尽くす時だ

It is hard to say that the United States is sufficiently exercising its leadership in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear development and the threat of terrorism by extremist groups. We hope the United States will proactively work to solve these issues.
北朝鮮の核開発や過激派によるテロの脅威への対処で、米国の指導力が十分に発揮されているとは言い難い。懸案の解決に向けて、積極的に取り組んでもらいたい。

In his final State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama said, “Priority No. 1 is going after terrorist networks” and indicated his intention to go all out to destroy the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) extremist group.
オバマ大統領は施政方針となる任期最後の一般教書演説で、「最優先課題はテロリストのネットワークを追いつめることだ」と述べ、過激派組織「イスラム国」壊滅に全力を挙げる意向を示した。

Yet he fell short of unveiling any concrete measures to defeat ISIL. As things stand now, it will be difficult for him to make any significant achievements in his remaining year in office.
だが、打倒への具体的な道筋は明らかにしなかった。このままでは、残り任期１年で大きな成果を上げるのは困難だろう。

The modus operandi of limiting military operations and emphasizing international cooperation unless the United States and its allies face a direct threat is showing its limitations. Shouldn’t Washington consider sending out additional special forces?
米国や同盟国が直接の脅威に直面しない限り、軍事行動を控え、国際協調を重視する手法は限界を露呈している。米軍特殊部隊の増派も検討すべきではないか。

It is also questionable that Obama declared the continuation of the half-measure strategy that “we keep America safe and lead the world without becoming its policeman.”
「世界の警察官にならずに米国の安全を維持し、世界を導く」という中途半端な戦略の継続を表明したのも疑問だ。

North Korea has conducted nuclear tests as many as three times while Obama has been in office, taking much of the luster from his comments about “a world without nuclear weapons,” which he advocated in a Prague speech shortly after he took office.
北朝鮮は、オバマ政権下で３回も核実験を行い、就任直後のプラハ演説で唱えた「核兵器のない世界」はすっかり色あせた。

In his State of the Union address three years ago, the president pledged to take “firm action” in response to a nuclear test conducted by North Korea. This time, however, he made no reference to Pyongyang’s latest test.
３年前の一般教書演説では、北朝鮮の核実験に「断固とした行動」を明言したのに、今回は言及しなかった。

N. Korea strategy at dead end?

This can be interpreted as Washington reaching a dead end in its strategy in dealing with North Korea. Vis a vis the state, it is important to explore ways to hold a dialogue depending on its behavior, while increasing pressure.
戦略の行き詰まりとも受け取られよう。北朝鮮には圧力を強化しつつ、相手の出方に応じて対話も模索することが肝要だ。

We also think Washington should have taken prompter, stronger action against China, as the country is turning the artificial islands it has built into military strongholds in the South China Sea. To prevent China from accelerating its attempts to change the status quo by force, it is also vital for U.S. military vessels to regularly sail near the artificial islands.
南シナ海で中国が進める人工島の軍事拠点化に対しても、より迅速で強力な行動が必要だったのではないか。「力による現状変更」を加速させないためには、人工島付近での艦艇航行を定期的に実施することも欠かせない。

It was appropriate that Obama called on Congress to swiftly approve the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, saying, “With TPP, China does not set the rules in that region; we do.” Washington should learn from its failed approach of prioritizing cooperation with China while turning a blind eye to human rights and other issues.
環太平洋経済連携協定（ＴＰＰ）について、オバマ氏が「中国でなく、我々が地域のルールを作る」と、議会に早期承認を求めたのは適切である。中国の人権問題などに目をつぶり、協調を優先して失敗した教訓を生かすべきだ。

In his speech, Obama emphasized his achievements over the past seven years and the continuation of his policies, rather than concrete solutions for these problems.
オバマ氏は演説で、問題の具体的な解決策よりも、７年間の実績と政策の継続に重点を置いた。

The Obama administration deserves credit for weathering the financial crisis under way at the time it was inaugurated and for implementing its rebalancing policy, which focuses on Asia and has promoted the reinforcement of the Japan-U.S. alliance.
政権発足時の金融危機を克服し、「アジア重視」政策や日米同盟強化を進めたことは評価できる。

It was also reasonable for Obama to cite such achievements as the country’s normalizing diplomatic ties with Cuba, reaching a nuclear accord with Iran and inking the Paris accord on measures against climate change.
キューバとの国交回復やイラン核合意、気候変動対策のパリ協定を成果としたのももっともだ。

He spoke of his policies of promoting reform of the medical insurance system and immigration system, and pursuing gun control. U.S. citizens are divided on these issues, and the split in public opinion is becoming more serious.
医療保険制度改革や移民制度改革、銃規制を推進する方針を示したが、米国民の賛否は分かれ、国論の分裂は深刻化している。

Obama must take seriously the situation illustrated in recent public opinion polls, which have found that about 70 percent of people think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
世論調査で約７割が「米国は悪い方向に進んでいる」と回答している現実を、オバマ氏は真摯しんしに受け止めねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 14, 2016)

The Yomiuri Shimbun
World must refuse to tolerate further provocation by North Korea
朝鮮半島緊張　北のさらなる挑発を許さない

Triggered by North Korea’s latest nuclear test, tensions are running high on the Korean Peninsula. Further military provocation by that country absolutely cannot be tolerated.
北朝鮮による核実験を機に、朝鮮半島の緊張が高まっている。北朝鮮のさらなる軍事挑発は、断じて容認できない。

The U.S. forces flew a B-52 strategic bomber over South Korea. “This was a demonstration of the ironclad U.S. commitment to our allies in South Korea and in Japan,” Adm. Harry Harris, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in a statement.
米軍のＢ５２戦略爆撃機が韓国上空を飛行した。米太平洋軍のハリス司令官は、「同盟国である韓国と日本への防衛義務に対する決意を示すものだ」とする声明を発表した。

It was greatly significant for the United States to take swift action to demonstrate its deterrent power in an effort to maintain regional stability.
米国が地域の安定を維持するために、迅速な行動で抑止力を体現した意義は大きい。

The B-52 bomber, a plane that can carry nuclear bombs and cruise missiles, is said to be one of the U.S. weapons about which North Korea has the deepest concern. It also has a long flight range. In the latest flyover, the U.S. bomber took off from and returned to an air base in Guam.
Ｂ５２は、核爆弾や巡航ミサイルの搭載が可能で、北朝鮮が最も警戒する兵器の一つだとされる。航続距離が長く、今回はグアムの空軍基地から往復した。

It is essential for the United States to strongly and repeatedly warn North Korea that no act of military provocation, such as an artillery attack on the South, will be tolerated. U.S. military options under consideration for the immediate future include the deployment of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and a stealth fighter.
米国が北朝鮮に対して、韓国側への砲撃などの軍事挑発は許さないという強い警告を与え続けることが肝要である。今後は、原子力空母やステルス戦闘機などの展開も検討されている。

Two days after the North’s nuclear test, South Korea resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts condemning its northern neighbor’s regime in the vicinity of the Demilitarized Zone. This was based on South Korea’s conclusion that the latest nuclear test constituted “an extraordinary situation” in which the country could restart propaganda broadcasts. In August, the South and the North had reached a deal under which anti-Pyongyang propaganda would not be resumed unless such a situation arose.
韓国は核実験の２日後、軍事境界線付近で、北朝鮮の体制を非難する宣伝放送を再開した。核実験が、昨年８月の南北合意で決めた放送再開の条件である「異常事態」に当たると判断したためだ。

Bitterly antagonized by the South Korean action, the North has reportedly reinforced frontline troops. All this is giving rise to aggravating hostility between the North and South.
北朝鮮は強く反発し、軍の前線部隊を増強したとされる。南北対立は激化している。

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, is attempting to justify the nuclear test by calling it “a self-defensive measure to defend the sovereignty of the country and vital rights of the nation.” His statement is a self-righteous assertion that ignores international condemnation, and it is utterly unacceptable.
金正恩第１書記は、核実験について、「国の自主権と民族の生存権を守る自衛的措置だ」と正当化しようとしている。国際社会の非難を顧みない独善的な主張であり、到底受け入れられない。

An array of sanctions

At the initiative of the United States, the U.N. Security Council is proceeding with work to draft a resolution aimed at imposing sanctions on North Korea. Attention is focused largely on such measures as restrictions on banking transactions involving North Korea and restraint on port calls by North Korean ships. The envisaged sanctions must be made effective enough to make North Korea pay the price for its nuclear testing.
国連安全保障理事会では、米国が中心となって、制裁決議案作りが進んでいる。北朝鮮との銀行取引規制や船舶の入港制限の強化などが焦点になる。核実験を実施した北朝鮮に代償を払わせるため、実効性のある制裁にすべきだ。

What is important is for pertinent nations to take concerted action to reinforce sanctions against North Korea. China, a country that can exert influence on North Korea, must fully cooperate with other nations in adopting the resolution and strictly implementing it.
大切なのは、関係国が制裁強化で足並みをそろえることである。北朝鮮に影響力のある中国は、決議案の採択と厳格な履行に全面的に協力せねばならない。

In video footage used in a recent program aired by Korean Central Television that focused on Kim, an image of Liu Yunshan — a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee — has been removed. The initial footage showed Liu attending a military parade in Pyongyang last October.
朝鮮中央テレビが放映した金第１書記の記録映像では、昨年１０月の軍事パレードに参列した中国共産党の劉雲山政治局常務委員の姿をカットした。

There is reason to believe the deletion of Liu’s image was intended to serve as a restraining influence on China, which has denounced the recent nuclear test and is joining talks over a resolution against the North Korea.
核実験を非難し、決議案協議に関わる中国を牽制けんせいする思惑があったのではないか。

Japan, a nonpermanent member of the Security Council, should be proactively involved in promoting negotiations over the envisaged resolution. In commenting on anti-Pyongyang sanctions to be imposed by Japan on its own, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said, “Stern measures will be adopted.”
非常任理事国である日本も、決議案協議に積極的に関与したい。安倍首相は、日本の独自制裁についても、「厳しい対応をとっていく」と表明した。

Japan, the United States and South Korea will hold a string of talks at the level of bureau chief and vice minister this week. It is important for the three nations to closely cooperate with each other to prevent North Korea from going out of control.
日米韓は今週、外務省の局長級、次官協議を相次いで開く。３か国が緊密に連携し、北朝鮮の暴走を抑えることが重要だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 13, 2016)

January 10, 2016 (Mainichi Japan)
Kaleidoscope of the Heart: Brain science and the human spirit
香山リカのココロの万華鏡: 脳科学と人の心　／東京

I wonder what kind of year this is going to be.
今年はどんな年になるのだろう。

As a psychiatrist, this year is likely to be one wherein I will take a fresh look at the question of just what exactly is the human spirit.
精神科医の私にとっては、あらためて「人の心って何だろう」と考える年になりそうだ。

The advances recently made in the field of brain science have been astounding.
近年の脳科学の進歩はすさまじい。

Ohio State University announced last year that it had finally utilized pluripotent stem cells derived from human skin cells in order to culture an eraser-sized "miniature brain," which included nearly all of the genes of a 5-week-old fetus.
昨年はついに、アメリカのオハイオ州立大学で人間の皮膚細胞由来の多能性幹細胞を使って、妊娠５週の胎児の脳のほぼすべての遺伝子を持った消しゴムサイズの“ミニチュア脳”が培養されたと報じられた。

It seems clear, then, that it will become possible within a short time frame to reproduce a human brain.
おそらく近い将来、誰かの脳をもう一つ作ることも可能になるに違いない。

On second thought, however, I'll bet that before this occurs, analyses of the brain's neural networks will proceed in a manner such that people will be able to replicate their own brain on a computer.
いや、その前に脳の神経ネットワークの解析が進み、自分の脳をそのままコンピューター上に再現することができるかもしれない。

I remember a scene from a science fiction movie where a woman was able to converse with a computer that utilized the same pattern as the brain of her dead husband. Soon, this will actually become a reality.
ＳＦ映画では「亡くなった夫の脳と同じパターンを持ったコンピューターと妻が対話する」といったシーンも出てくるが、それが間もなく現実になろうとしているのだ。

Let's imagine that this does indeed occur.
「もしそうなったら」と想像してみよう。

A vendor providing a "replacement brain" service comes to your house, picks up skin and hair samples of your dead family member from off the floor, and takes them away.
「脳復元サービス」の業者があなたの家を訪れ、すでに世を去ったあなたの家族の皮膚や髪の毛の一部を床から拾い上げ、持ち帰る。

You later receive notification that the artificial brain is ready, and it is delivered to your home along with an attached apparatus that allows you to converse with it.
しばらくすると「完成しました」と連絡が来て、人工の脳とそれに接続された会話装置が届く。

You flip the switch, and the nostalgic voice of your relative says, "It's been a long time! Are you studying like you should be?
I know you don't like English!" Naturally, you are also able to hold conversations with the device -- meaning that you can laugh and fight with your family member just like you always did before.
スイッチを入れると「久しぶり。ちゃんと勉強してる？　あなたは英語が苦手だから」となつかしい家族の声が聞こえてくる。もちろん対話も可能。昔と同じように笑い合ったりケンカしたりすることもできる……。

Some people are likely to think, "This is amazing! I hope this will become a reality as soon as possible!"
「すごい。早く実現しないかな」と思う人もいるかもしれない。

Many others, however, probably feel that no matter how much a particular response pattern is able to be duplicated, it could never take the place of their beloved kin.
しかし、多くの人は、「いや、いくら反応のパターンは同じでも、それは私の愛する家族ではない」と感じるのではないだろうか。

And even if one's own brain were able to be simulated via this type of service, few are those who would feel as if they had actually attained the ability to live forever.
また、そういうサービスで自分の脳が再現されたとしても「永遠の命が手に入った」と考える人は少ないはずだ。

If this is the case, then, what does it mean to exist as a particular human being?
だとしたら「その人である」とはいったい何なのだろう。

Is it the act of possessing a body?
からだがあるということか。

This is clearly not so, since the relatives or lover of someone whose face or other bodily features had become greatly disfigured in an accident would be unlikely to conclude that the individual had suddenly become a different person.
それは違う。事故などで顔やからだが大きく損傷されても、家族や恋人は「もうあなたではない別人になった」とは思わないはずだ。

This being the case, then, it is clear that there is a deep connection between existing as an individual being human being and the fact that we have only one life -- even though no one yet possesses a definitive answer with respect to this matter.
そう考えると、「その人である」ということと「命が一度きりであること」は深く関係しているようだ。ただ、この問題についてのはっきりした答えはまだ誰も手にしていない。

Every single individual who sits with lowered eyes and sheds tears while sitting in my office possesses their own unique spirit, and is living their one unique life -- a fact in and of itself that explains the reason why we all get hurt and suffer.
診察室でうつむく人、涙をこぼす人。みんな「自分だけの心」を持ち、「一度きりの人生」を生きているからこそ、傷ついて苦しむのだ。

This year, then, I would like to continue probing and agonizing together with all of you with respect to the following questions: What does it mean to be human? And just what is the human spirit?
「人って何だろう」「心って何だろう」。今年も迷い悩みながら、みなさんといっしょに考えていきたい。

(By Rika Kayama, psychiatrist)
（精神科医）